Covid-19 cases dip again: Was this mini-wave just a seasonal bump?

India's Covid cases are falling after a mild surge driven by fast-spreading Omicron sub-lineages, with experts saying these short spikes may now be seasonal patterns

Covid-19 cases in India are dipping again, with active infections dropping to 6,836 on Tuesday from 7,264 just a day earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. After weeks of rising numbers that raised fears of a new wave, this sudden decline prompts a key question: was it really a wave or just a seasonal bump?

Not a wave, just a seasonal spike, say experts

It’s not a wave in the way we once feared. Experts call it a “mini-wave” or a seasonal surge—not a full-blown crisis.

 

“The current rise in cases could be classified as a mini-wave. Hopefully, it should stabilise in time,” says Dr Bharesh Dedhia, Consultant, Intensive Care at P D Hinduja Hospital & MRC, Khar “We will see these types of waves periodically, more as Covid becomes a seasonal flu-like infection.”

 

 

Dr Pankaj Chhabra, Clinical Director, Pulmonology Respiratory & Sleep Medicine at Marengo Asia Hospitals, Faridabad, adds, “The recent increase is more akin to a seasonal spike. Trends show the surge is already decreasing in many areas, indicating a short-term peak and not a long-term wave.”

Omicron sub-lineages behind the latest mini-surge

According to WHO, Omicron and its evolving sub-lineages—such as JN.1, NB.1.8.1, and LF.7 (XFG)—are driving the increase. These variants spread quickly but have not caused severe illness in most people.

 

“These new sub-lineages are spreading faster, but hospitalisation and ICU admissions remain low,” says Dr Chhabra. “The virus is mutating constantly, but it seems to be stabilising into something more predictable.”

Most infections remain mild or asymptomatic

Doctors say hospitals in cities like Mumbai, Pune, and Delhi are reporting very few severe cases. Most people testing positive have mild symptoms like fever, sore throat, cough, and fatigue, similar to seasonal flu.

 

“Most patients are recovering at home with supportive care,” Dr Dedhia notes.

Symptoms mirror flu or common cold

So far, the symptoms remain mild. Patients are experiencing fever, body aches, sore throat, cough, and fatigue.

 

“It is behaving more like influenza or a common cold,” says Dr Dedhia. “It is not the same as previous waves in terms of severity, but it remains highly transmissible.”

No signs of hospitals being overwhelmed

That’s a major difference compared to earlier waves. Hospital systems are not under stress.

 

“Relative to Delta or early Omicron waves, this phase is far less severe,” Dr Chhabra says. “Fewer individuals are being hospitalised, and ICU usage is negligible. That’s a clear sign of improved population immunity.”

Will Covid-19 now behave like seasonal flu?

Yes, doctors say Covid-19 is transitioning into an endemic virus, much like seasonal influenza. Expect small surges during weather changes or festive periods.

 

“Just as flu comes in waves, Covid will also behave like that,” says Dr Dedhia.

 

“Mini-outbreaks will probably persist annually or biannually,” says Dr Chhabra. “Vaccinations and seasonal awareness will be key to preventing complications.”

Who remains at risk during these surges?

While most people are safe, the elderly and those with underlying conditions remain vulnerable.

 

“We are seeing slightly more severe infections in older patients, and those with comorbidities like asthma, COPD, diabetes, or weakened immune systems,” explains Dr Dedhia.

 

Dr Chhabra adds, “Pregnant women and people with chronic illnesses should stay especially cautious during these mini-surges.”

Masks, hygiene, and awareness remain key

Experts stress the importance of continued basic precautions.

 

“Elderly people, those with heart or lung disease, and pregnant women should consider masking in public, limiting unnecessary travel, and staying up to date with booster doses,” says Dr Chhabra. “Early consultation on symptoms can help prevent complications.”

 

“The public must remain calm but vigilant,” he adds. “Panic isn’t needed, but steps like hand hygiene, masking in crowded places, and self-isolation when sick must continue.”  For more health updates, follow #HealthWithBS 

This content is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice.