50,000 green cards may be freed by US visa pause: How Indians may benefit

Unused family-based visas from 75 countries could spill into jobs categories, though per-country caps may blunt the impact for Indians

The pause on immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries, which came into effect on January 21, could free up around 50,000 additional employment-based Green Card numbers in 2027, as unused family-based quotas spill over into employment categories the following year, according to immigration attorney Emily Neumann.

 

In a video post, she said a similar situation unfolded during the Covid-19 period, when unused family-based visas flowed into employment-based categories and priority dates advanced by four to five years.

 

Neumann analysed historical data from all 75 countries on the ban list to estimate how many family-based Green Cards could remain unused this year.

   

“Had the ban not been announced, about 67,000 immigrant visas would have been allotted to these countries in the current financial year,” Neumann said. “Since the ban came after the first quarter, the realistic spillover could be closer to 50,000, provided the ban continues through September 2026.”

 

Family-based numbers driving the spillover

 

Using 2024 figures, Neumann said Pakistan accounted for the highest number of family-based Green Card allocations among the 75 countries, at around 15,000, followed by Bangladesh with roughly 8,000.

 

Both countries are part of the current immigrant visa pause.

 

The unused family-based numbers from such countries are what create the possibility of spillover into employment-based categories in the next fiscal year.

 

Why India may not see much relief

 

Despite the headline number, retrogression and per-country limits could prevent Indian applicants from seeing any meaningful benefit.

 

A Green Card, officially known as a Permanent Resident Card or Form I-551, is issued by US Citizenship and Immigration Services and allows foreign nationals to live and work permanently in the United States. It serves as proof of lawful permanent resident status.

 

Ajay Sharma, immigration expert and founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, pointed out that higher global availability does not automatically translate into faster movement for Indian applicants.

 

Hence, even if more employment-based Green Cards become available on paper, priority dates for Indians could still move backwards or remain stuck because demand from India is far higher than supply.

 

Under US immigration law, each country is capped at roughly 7 per cent of the total number of employment-based Green Cards issued each year. The real constraint for Indians is the per-country cap, not the global quota. As a result, even if immigrant visas from the 75 countries remain unused, India cannot absorb all of those numbers. At best, India can receive a limited share within the cap, rather than a large one-time gain.

 

This means additional numbers do not automatically lead to faster Green Cards for Indian applicants.

 

Trade ties and political context

 

Sharma linked visa policy to broader geopolitical and economic factors.

 

“In reality, everything related to visas is currently impacted by trade and political relations between countries,” he told Business Standard. “That can only improve from here because of the strategic importance the two countries have for each other.”

 

He said restrictive immigration phases tend to be cyclical.

 

“I have seen anti-immigrant sentiment come and go over the last three decades. These phases are temporary. Labour needs are driven by demographics, and those are negative across most developed countries, including the US,” Sharma said.

 

He added that similar inward-looking policies were visible globally.

 

“America says America first. Canada says Canada first. Europe says Europe first. That is the mindset everywhere right now,” he said.

 

According to Sharma, as global economic pressures ease, visa processing and Green Card issuance could stabilise within six to twelve months, allowing India to eventually gain from any freed-up quotas once conditions normalise.

 

Immigrant visa ban list

 

The Trump administration has paused the processing of immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries while it reviews welfare usage by applicants from those nations.

 

The countries include Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Antigua and Barbuda, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, The Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, North Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Myanmar, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Republic of the Congo, Russia, Rwanda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, and Yemen.

 

Immigrant visa vs non-immigrant visa

 

The pause applies only to immigrant visas, which are meant for people seeking permanent residence in the United States.

 

It does not affect non-immigrant visas, including H-1B work visas, student visas, or short-term travel visas for nationals from the listed countries.