Canada sees Indian student share fall below 10% in 2025: What led to drop

Indian students' share drops sharply as visa caps, higher costs and policy shifts reshape Canada's study pathway

The share of Indians among the incoming international student population in Canada dropped sharply from more than 50 per cent in 2023 to under 10 per cent in 2025, according to a report submitted to Parliament by Office of the Auditor General of Canada last week.

 

Data presented in the report shows Indians accounted for 51.6 per cent of the incoming international student population in 2023. That fell to 33.6 per cent in 2024, and by September 2025, the cohort’s share had dropped to 8.1 per cent.

 

What is driving the fall in Indian student numbers?

 

“The current situation in Canada’s international student pathway is significantly weaker compared to what we have seen over the past 10–15 years,” said Varun Singh, MD, XIPHIAS Immigration.

   

“On-ground, there has been a sharp drop in visa issuances and overall intake, driven by recent policy changes, including caps on study permits, provincial quotas, and additional documentation requirements like Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs). While approval rates for processed applications may not have collapsed uniformly across all segments, the effective outcome is the same: far fewer visas are being issued compared to previous years,” he told Business Standard.

 

Policy changes tighten entry

 

“Over the past two years, Canada has introduced a series of structural changes to its international student programme. These include a national cap on study permits, which reduced overall intake by approximately 35 per cent in 2024, with further tightening continuing into 2025. In parallel, the minimum proof-of-funds requirement was increased from CAD 10,000 to CAD 20,635, effectively doubling the upfront financial threshold for applicants,” Saurabh Arora, Founder and CEO, University Living told Business Standard.

 

Additional changes include:

 

• Stricter verification processes following fraud-related cases involving admission documents

• Closure of the Student Direct Stream, which earlier allowed faster visa processing for Indian applicants

• Tighter scrutiny across documentation and institutional compliance

 

Together, these measures have reduced the number of permits issued and raised the threshold for applicants. 

 

Fall in application intent raises concern

 

Experts say the sharper shift is on the demand side, with fewer Indian students applying. According to Singh, many are postponing plans or moving to other countries due to:

 

• Unpredictable policy changes over the past year

• Reduced clarity on post-study work opportunities

• Rising cost of living and housing constraints

• Limited intake capacity across provinces and institutions

 

At the same time, approval rates for well-qualified applicants remain relatively stable at an aggregate level, suggesting eligibility is not the main barrier. Instead, fewer students are entering the pipeline.

 

“High-volume source countries such as India are more sensitive to policy caps and intake reductions, leading to a sharper proportional decline when overall numbers are restricted. At the same time, there is a redistribution of student demand across destinations such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and France, where policy frameworks and cost structures differ,” said Arora.

 

Singh said this has slowed activity across the ecosystem, including institutions, consultants, and service providers dependent on Canada-bound student flows.

 

“Compared to the consistency Canada maintained for over a decade, the current phase reflects one of the most disrupted periods for student immigration, and there is still limited clarity on how quickly stability will return,” he added. 

 

Gap between projections and approvals widens

 

Since 2019, Canada had positioned itself as a destination for international students, linking education pathways with permanent residency. Study permit applications rose 121 per cent from around 426,000 in 2019 to about 943,000 in 2023.

 

However, following domestic pressure over rising temporary residents, including students, the government began reducing intake.

 

As volumes and approvals declined, the number of permits issued fell below projections set by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

 

• In 2024, approvals were projected at 348,900, but only 149,559 were issued — a 67 per cent drop compared to 2023

• By September 2025, projections stood at 255,360, while actual approvals were 50,370

 

The report found approval rates dropped to 41 per cent in 2024 and 38 per cent by September 2025, compared with 58 per cent in 2023. 

 

While IRCC had expected approval rates similar to 2023 levels, the report said it “did not know why its approval rates were lower than projected”.