Can Delhi's infrastructure handle 32 million people? MPD gives the numbers

From water and sewage to waste management, drainage and power infrastructure, here's what the Master Plan for Delhi says will be needed to support a projected 32 million people by 2047

Delhi's population is projected to rise from 22.6 million in 2026 to about 32 million by 2047, according to the Master Plan for Delhi 2047 (MPD-2047). The plan estimates a population of 24.8 million by 2031, 26.9 million by 2036, and 29.2 million by 2041, before reaching 32 million in 2047. That growth puts basic services under pressure and raises the question of how quickly the infrastructure needed to serve them can be built.

 

The MPD-2047 will focus on an infrastructure-led growth model, under which new development is to be guided by the availability of roads, public transport, water, sewerage, drainage, power and digital connectivity.

 

Water may be Delhi's biggest constraint

Water could be one of the most difficult requirements to bridge. In 2021, Delhi's water supply stood at 935 million gallons per day (MGD), against an estimated demand of 1,380 MGD.

 

By 2047, the Delhi Jal Board (DJB) estimates potable-water demand at about 1,600 MGD. It has projected an additional requirement of 401 MGD, with 110 MGD to come from short- to medium-term measures and another 291 MGD from medium- to long-term interventions.

 

The detailed augmentation plan starts with present water availability of about 1,000 MGD and envisages adding 401 MGD, taking total availability to 1,401 MGD by 2047. That leaves a notable gap against the plan's own 1,600 MGD potable-demand estimate. The proposed supply also depends partly on projects and arrangements beyond Delhi's borders. The medium- to long-term plan includes 275 MGD from the Renukaji, Lakhwar and Kishau upstream storage projects, although the document calls this estimate highly tentative. MPD-2047 says surface-water augmentation will depend on cooperation from Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh, along with Central government intervention. 

Challenge of high sewage generation

More water supplied to a larger population also means more wastewater to collect and treat. The MPD estimates that a population of 32 million, supplied at 50 gallons per capita per day, would generate about 1,280 MGD of wastewater, assuming 80 per cent of supplied water becomes wastewater.

 

Delhi currently has installed sewage-treatment capacity of 814 MGD, against which about 744 MGD of wastewater is being treated. The detailed 2047 plan targets total treatment capacity of 1,285 MGD comprising 814 MGD of existing capacity, 231 MGD of additional treatment capacity and another 240 MGD through decentralised sewage-treatment plants in land-pooling areas.

 

The city also has a network-coverage challenge, as nearly 83 per cent of Delhi's population is currently connected to the sewerage network, according to the plan.

Drainage: Growth against recurring waterlogging

Adding infrastructure for a larger population will not only require more supply capacity, Delhi will also have to cope with how water moves through an increasingly built-up city. The MPD identifies recurring waterlogging and flooding as problems that require a longer-term drainage response.

 

It calls for more efficient storm-water infrastructure and low-cost flood-prevention measures, including rejuvenation of water bodies, using parks for rainwater harvesting and preventing solid waste from entering drains. The Delhi Drainage Master Plan, under preparation by the Delhi government, is intended to address drainage requirements over the next 30 years in the face of rapid urban growth and recurring waterlogging. The plan also says new development should ensure that overall runoff does not increase, using measures such as ponds, parks, porous pavements, green belts and rainwater-harvesting structures. 

Delhi could generate almost twice as much garbage

Waste is another requirement that will grow sharply with population. Delhi is estimated to generate 13,500 tonnes per day of municipal solid waste in 2026. By 2047, that is projected to rise to 25,764 tonnes per day, which is an increase of about 91 per cent.

 

The MPD says only around 47.5 per cent of municipal solid waste is currently processed, with the rest primarily disposed of at the Bhalswa, Ghazipur and Okhla landfill sites. It also notes that the existing landfill sites have exceeded their capacity. Delhi is therefore dealing simultaneously with its existing legacy waste and a much larger future waste stream.

 

The plan envisions reclaimed landfill sites being used for future waste-processing infrastructure and engineered sanitary landfill facilities, while additional biomethanation and other processing capacity will be needed to manage the projected increase.

Peak power demand could reach 25,500 MW

Electricity demand presents another major expansion requirement. Delhi's conventional power-supply capacity stood at 7,161 megawatts (MW) in 2021, while renewable operational power purchase agreements and tie-ups accounted for another 923 MW. The MPD estimates that peak power demand could reach 25,500 MW by 2047.

 

The Delhi Transco plan shows what that demand means in physical infrastructure. Delhi currently has 43 substations at the 220 Kilovolt (kV) level, with another four under pipeline or execution, while MPD-2047 proposes 37 additional 220 kV substations.

 

At 400 kV, there are eight existing substations, two under pipeline, and 10 additional ones proposed. Two more 765 kV substations are also proposed. The expansion also has a land requirement, and under revised Central Electricity Authority guidelines, a 220 kV substation requires at least 10,000 square metres and a 400 kV substation at least 40,000 square metres.

MPD makes infra the condition for growth

MPD-2047 does not provide a simple yes-or-no answer to whether Delhi's infrastructure can support 32 million people. Instead, it lays out the scale of infrastructure that will have to be built, expanded, or upgraded before that population arrives.

 

By 2047, Delhi will need to supply about 1,600 MGD of potable water, treat around 1,280 MGD of wastewater, manage 25,764 tonnes of municipal waste a day and cater to peak power demand of 25,500 MW. At the same time, it will have to address sewerage gaps, recurring waterlogging, and the resilience of its existing infrastructure. The challenge, therefore, is not simply accommodating 32 million people, but ensuring that the infrastructure required to support them is ready alongside.