Iran-US war: UAE flight halt call threatens fresh turbulence for airlines

Pilot body cites security risks, but carriers fear a suspension could knock their recovery off course

The Airlines Pilots’ Association of India’s demand for the immediate suspension of flights to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) — especially Dubai and Abu Dhabi — and other affected Gulf destinations because of escalating security threats arising from the Iran-US conflict, made in a letter to the Directorate General of Civil Aviation, could have an adverse impact on India’s aviation sector if implemented. Indian carriers are only slowly recovering after the conflict and are still far from returning to normal flight operations.

 

The reason is simple. Indian carriers are heavily dependent on the UAE market for India’s international aviation business. It is the country’s largest international market, accounting for 26.2 per cent of total international passenger traffic in the first quarter of calendar year 2026.

 

Breaking it down further, the India-Dubai market accounts for 13 per cent of total international passenger traffic, while the India-Abu Dhabi market contributes another 8.3 per cent, making them the two key routes in the region. However, nearly half the passenger traffic on these two routes is carried by Emirates (Dubai) and Etihad Airways (Abu Dhabi), with the remainder flown by Indian carriers.

 

If tensions escalate further, with renewed attacks involving Iran and the US, the risks could spread to other key Gulf markets where India also has major exposure. Saudi Arabia accounts for 6 per cent of India’s international passenger traffic, Qatar for 4.1 per cent, and Oman for 3.4 per cent.

 

Suspending more than 170 daily flights operating directly between India and the UAE — connecting 20 Indian cities with Dubai and 19 with Abu Dhabi — would force Indian carriers to ground aircraft, with limited scope to redeploy that capacity to other routes.

 

Says a senior executive at a leading airline, “We are nowhere close to the capacity levels we had during the same period last year. We were gradually rebuilding capacity, but if flights are cancelled again, it will trigger another major crisis. We have to make a rational assessment of the risks, just as other countries are doing, and avoid any hasty decision.”

 

The pilots’ demand comes at a time when the India-UAE market has still not returned to pre-conflict levels, despite the fragile peace agreement between Iran and the US. In July, seat capacity on the India-UAE route stood at 2.1 million, down 5.9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to Official Airline Guide data. That marked an improvement over June, when capacity was down 15 per cent Y-o-Y.

 

Although the Mumbai-Dubai route remained India’s busiest international city pair in July, with 215,000 seats, capacity on the route was still 7 per cent lower than in the same month last year. 

Recovery runway gets shorter

• UAE is India’s biggest overseas aviation market, accounting for 26% of all international passenger traffic
• The fallout could spread, with Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar adding another 13.5% of international traffic if flights are also suspended
• India-UAE seat capacity is 5.9% lower Y-o-Y in July, after a 15% decline in June