Safe-haven surge, Fed rate-cut bets drive gold to new record highs

Spot gold was up 1.4% at $4,264.63 per ounce as of 11:06 a.m. ET (1506 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of $4,270.59 earlier

Gold hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on brewing US-China trade tensions and the US government shutdown, with bets on interest rate cuts fueling the momentum.

Spot gold was up 1.4 per cent at $4,264.63 per ounce as of 11:06 a.m. ET (1506 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of $4,270.59 earlier.

US gold futures for December delivery were up 1.9 per cent at $4,279.50.

The yellow metal has gained over 60 per cent year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation and robust ETF inflows.

 

"Gold's trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around US-China. If no deal is reached between the US-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5000/oz barrier," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering US-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China's expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.

Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point US Federal Reserve rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98 per cent and 95 per cent, respectively.

Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said.

HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker US dollar.

Meanwhile, the ongoing US government shutdown has halted scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it could cost the economy up to $15 billion a week in lost output.

Spot silver rose 1.3 per cent to $53.76 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $53.83 earlier in the session, tracking gold's rally and supported by tightness in the spot market.

Platinum rose 3.8 per cent to $1,717.10 and palladium climbed 3.1 per cent to $1,584.25.