Fractal Analytics vs Aye Finance IPO: Where should you park your money?

With both issues, Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance, open until February 11, subscription trends and issue details are being closely tracked as investors compare the two offerings

The initial public offerings (IPOs) of Fractal Analytics and Aye Finance opened for public subscription on Monday, February 9, 2026, drawing investor attention to two distinct segments of the market - analytics and artificial intelligence services, and MSME-focused lending. With both issues open until February 11, subscription trends and issue details are being closely tracked as investors compare the two offerings.

GMP indicates modest interest in Fractal Analytics IPO

Fractal Analytics IPO is seeing mild demand in the grey market, with its last GMP at ₹13 as of February 9, 2026, according to sources tracking unofficial markets. This implies an estimated listing price of around ₹913, representing a premium of about 1.44 per cent over the upper end of the price band of ₹900.

 

 

In contrast, Aye Finance IPO is currently trading flat in the grey market, as of February 9, 2026, indicating an estimated listing price in line with the upper price band of ₹129 and no expected listing gain so far.

Fractal Analytics: Strong client base and AI strategy win broker support

Fractal Analytics, India’s first pure-play AI company to list, has drawn interest from brokerages for its positioning in the niche data and analytics space, leveraging AI developed through in-house R&D and external models. Analysts at Anand Rathi highlighted the company’s client-centric approach, long-standing relationships, and selection by the Government of India under the IndiaAI Mission to build sovereign reasoning models, including specialised medical AI models. While the issue appears richly priced at a post-issue P/E of 79x, the brokerage assigned a 'Subscribe – Long Term' rating, citing Fractal’s presence across four focus industries and an average top-client tenure of over eight years.

 

Swastika Securities noted Fractal’s sharp turnaround, from a ₹55 crore loss in FY24 to a ₹221 crore profit in FY25, driven by 26 per cent revenue growth. The upper price band of ₹900 is expensive but reflects a scarcity premium for a listed AI platform, making it suitable for high-risk, growth-focused investors with a 3–5 year horizon to ride the global generative AI cycle, the brokerage said in its note.

 

While analysts at SBI Securities pointed to Fractal's elevated valuations (post-issue FY25 P/E 78.9x), moderate revenue growth (18 per cent CAGR FY23–25), and high attrition rates (16.3 per cent in FY25) as reasons for a 'Neutral' rating, suggesting investors monitor performance post-listing.

 

According to SMIFS, the company’s strategic positioning in a rapidly expanding AI ecosystem, with the total serviceable market for AI services, platforms, and software expected to grow from $85 billion in FY25 to $171 billion by FY30, along with high client integration, recurring revenues, and deepening penetration in marquee clients, provides strong multi-year visibility. SMIFS recommended subscribing with a long-term investment horizon, citing potential value creation from sustained execution and GenAI-led industry tailwinds.

Aye Finance IPO: Elevated credit costs and execution risks raise caution

Aye Finance, a non-banking financial company focused on lending to India’s underserved micro-scale enterprises, is shifting its strategy toward higher-ticket, longer-tenure mortgage loans to reduce its relatively high credit cost, which stood at 7 per cent (annualised H1FY26). According to brokerage reports, the company’s profit declined roughly 40 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in H1FY26 due to rising impairment costs, margin compression, and higher operating expenses.

 

According to SBI Securities, at the upper price band of ₹129, the issue is valued at an adjusted post-issue P/BV of 2.0x. The brokerage recommended monitoring the company’s progress in reducing credit costs and advised investors to 'Avoid' the issue for now.

 

HDFC Securities also highlighted the need to track the impact of Aye Finance’s mortgage-heavy loan mix strategy on profitability and risk metrics. Analysts said the IPO provides a window to evaluate the company’s transition, but execution challenges and elevated credit costs may keep near-term performance under pressure.

 

Overall, brokerages suggest exercising caution, emphasising that while the strategy could reduce credit costs over time, investors should wait to see operational improvements and stabilise earnings before considering investment.  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.