Friday the 13th: Nifty's 13th fall of over 1% in 2026? Experts decode

Nifty fall today:On a year-to-date basis, the Nifty has shed nearly 11 per cent, with near 7 per cent of the fall coming this March amid the US-Iran war. Analysts fear further downside for the market.

The NSE Nifty 50 index cracked over 1 per cent (1.2 per cent) to the lowest point of the day at 23,364 in Friday's morning trade. Thus far in the month of March 2026, since the start of West Asia conflict, the NSE benchmark index has now declined more than 1 per cent in six out of the last nine trading sessions, and declined nearly 7 per cent thus far.  If the Nifty ends with a loss of more than 1 per cent today, it shall log its 13th over 1 per cent fall in the calendar year 2026, that too on Friday the 13th.  Equity markets across the globe have been on the boil, with crude oil prices surging past the $100-mark amid the US-Israel-Iran war. Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening fears of a protracted conflict, said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities in a note.  The selling has been across-the-board, on a year-to-date (YTD) basis; the Nifty has shed 10.6 per cent - the highest among the benchmark indices on the NSE. In comparison, the Nifty SmallCap declined 10.3 per cent, Nifty MidCap 8.5 per cent and the broader Nifty 500 was down 9.5 per cent at the lowest point on YTD basis as of Friday.  ALSO READ | Is Nifty headed towards a bear phase? Analyst warns of 19,000-mark  Analysts fear that persistent FII selling in largecap stocks and high crude prices have put the bulls in defensive mode.  "With the heightened uncertainty surrounding the West Asian conflict continuing, globally markets are weak and in unchartered territory. With Brent crude around $100, bulls are on the defensive. With the FIIs persisting with their sustained selling strategy, even largecap bluechips are under pressure," said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.  Among the Nifty 50 stocks - 13 shares have declined over 10 per cent so far in March. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bajaj Finance, Larsen & Toubro, Eicher Motors, Ultratech Cement and Maruti Suzuki are the major losers - down up to 16 per cent.     

Nifty outlook

   The Nifty trend is weak, says Vakil and sees immediate support for the index at 23,500 and 23,210. On the upside, the analyst pegs 24,000 – 24,100 zone as a formidable ceiling for any recovery attempts. 

 

 

  Nandish Shah, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities highlights that the Nifty is placed below its 5-, 11- and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), and expects further downside on the index.  "The Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillator is in falling mode and placed below 40, suggesting strength in the downtrend," explains Shah.    Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments expects the Nifty to test 23,090 levels in the near-term.  The Nifty is poised to continue the slide, aiming 23,090 with minor support seen in the 23,370 - 23,320 region, says James. For reversal chances, the analyst says to watch out for consolidation near 23,460, and wait for a break past 23,670 to confirm upsides.  Disclaimer: The views expressed by the brokerage/ analyst in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. Business Standard advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.