HDFC Bank hits over 9-month low; stock down 8% so far in January

Shares of HDFC Bank were down 2% at ₹915.40 on the BSE in Wednesday's intra-day deals, also its lowest level since April 11, 2025.

HDFC Bank share price today

 

Shares of HDFC Bank hit an over nine-month low at ₹915.40, falling 2 per cent on the BSE in Wednesday’s intra-day trade. The stock price of the private lender was quoting at its lowest level since April 11, 2025. It had hit a 52-week low of ₹812.65 on January 22, 2025.

 

Thus far in the month of January 2026, HDFC Bank has underperformed the market by falling 8 per cent, as compared to 3.8 per cent decline in the BSE Sensex.

 

At 02:20 PM; HDFC Bank was quoting 1 per cent lower at ₹922.40, as against 0.2 per cent fall in the benchmark index.

 

 

Brokerages view on HDFC Bank

 

Despite a healthy set of results in the third quarter (October to December) of the financial year 2025-26 (Q3FY26), analysts remain skeptical on the growth outlook for HDFC Bank. 

 

India’s biggest private sector lender posted a Q3FY26 net profit of ₹18,600 crore, up 11 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), on higher treasury income. Its net interest income (NII) grew 6.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹32,620 crore with net interest margins (NIMs) expanding 8 bps quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to 3.35 per cent. However, as the lender clocked a 12 per cent Y-o-Y loan growth and an 11.6-per cent deposit growth, its loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) inched up to 98.7 per cent.

 

The bank's management gave guidance of improving margins, as it expects tailwinds from deposit repricing as well as repayment/replacement of borrowings at lower cost (given benign liquidity cycle).   ALSO READ | How to trade ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank post Q3 results? Here's a trading guide

 

Analysts at InCred Equities believe HDFC Bank can post relatively better margins vs. peer large private banks over the next few years. The brokerage firm builds in margins of 3.4 per cent/3.5 per cent in FY27F/28F, respectively. Key monitorable will be delivery on deposit growth as well as margin progression going ahead, analysts said.

 

Further, analysts at ICICI Securities said that HDFC Bank’s asset quality is expected to remain benign, with low slippages (ex-agri) and stable recoveries, while the recent labour-code provisioning of ₹800 crore (impacting staff cost up 11.5 per cent QoQ) is based on actuarial assumptions under evolving rules and does not yet reflect a steady-state recurring cost.

 

Supported by steady credit momentum, improving liabilities mix, and strong capital position, growth trajectory is seen to normalize gradually. Factoring RoA of ~1.8-1.9 per cent in FY27-28E and sustained growth outlook, ICICI Securities values the bank at ~2.3x FY28E ABV and add ₹124 for subsidiaries, assigning a revised target price of ₹1,150 (earlier ₹1,200). It maintains BUY rating on HDFC Bank.

 

HDFC Bank has been consistently performing on its guidance in its endeavour to revert to its pre-merger levels across metrics, and its execution capabilities remain strong. The management has indicated that LDR normalisation remains a key medium-term objective; it will not act as a limiting factor in pursuing credit growth. However, it will take constructive steps to strengthen its retail-focused deposit franchise with an emphasis on mobilizing CASA Deposits, analysts at YES Securities said in the Q3 result update.

 

Though margin recovery is taking longer than earlier expected, the brokerage firm expects continued term deposit repricing, high-cost borrowings getting replaced, strong CASA mobilisation, and improved growth to drive gradual margin improvement. An upward trajectory on margins, healthy fee income, improving operational efficiency, and benign credit costs supported by pristine asset quality across segments should enable HDFC Bank to deliver RoA/RoE of 1.8-1.9 per cent/14-16 per cent over FY26-28E. It maintains BUY recommendation on the stock with target price of ₹1,190 per share (earlier ₹1,170 per share).  ======================================  Disclaimer: View and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.