Silver prices can rally 20% to Rs 240,000/kg in 2026: Axis Securities

Silver prices that hit Rs 200,000-per-kilogram (kg) milestone in India on Friday have more room to climb, suggests a note from Axis Securities. In the domestic market, any correction down to the Rs 170,000-178,000 range, Axis Securities said, can be used for staggered accumulation, with the target of around Rs 240,000 for 2026.

 

Silver, Axis Securities said, has broken out of a multi-year consolidation phase, signaling the early stages of a long-term structural uptrend. The monthly chart, it said, highlights a massive 'Rounding Bottom breakout formation' stretching from 2011 to 2025.  

 

 

“The white metal has broken the neckline resistance at $50 level, and surged to a new all-time high of $64. Silver spent more than a decade forming a broad rounding bottom pattern after the 2011 2013 collapse. The breakout above $50 confirms renewed long-term bullish momentum. The next major resistance sits around $65 ––$67 level,” the brokerage said.

 

Structural deficit

 

At the fundamental level, silver is undergoing a historic repricing event, marked by the decoupling from its traditional correlation with gold, analysts said. The 2025 rally, driven by the convergence of industrial scarcity and monetary tailwinds, reflects supply/demand fundamentals defined by chronic, structural deficits.

 

"A critical development in late 2024 and throughout 2025 has been the collapse of the Gold/Silver Ratio (Historically serving as a barometer for risk appetite, the ratio has compressed significantly, falling from highs near 105 to current levels below 70," Axis Securities said. 

Silver price outlook

 

The critical takeaway from the demand data, reports suggest, is the exponential growth in industrial demand, specifically from the green energy transition. 

 

Demand from the Solar Photovoltaic sector has more than doubled in just four years, from 94.4 million ounces (Moz) in 2020 to 243.7 Moz in 2024. Solar alone accounted for nearly 21 of total demand in 2024 fundamentally altering the metal's usage profile, reports suggest.

 

Technical price forecast for silver 2026

 

On the technical charts, the 20-month and 60-month exponential moving averages (EMA), according to Axis Securities, are turning higher with a positive slope classic early cycle trend confirmation. Price trading well above long-term EMAs, it believes, reflects strengthening macro momentum.  

 

The monthly RSI, too, is approaching overbought levels, the brokerage said, but remains in a healthy bullish zone. Historically, silver prices have shown extended rallies even when RSI stayed elevated indicating strength, not exhaustion, it said.

 

"A sustained monthly close above $67 could trigger a multi-year uptrend targeting $76 ––$80. Consolidation may occur near resistance around $65, but the overall structure remains strongly bullish in the long term. As long as $50 level is intact on the downside, we expect prices to trade with a positive bias. Any correction in price can be used as an accumulation opportunity, provided the support zone remains intact," Axis Securities said.