Tata Motors shares hit speed bump, down 3% post muted Q4; what analysts say

Tata Motors' consolidated net profit tanked 51.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹8,556 crore in the March quarter of financial year 2025 (Q4FY25), from ₹17,528 crore in Q4FY24.

Tata Motors share price: Automobile manufacturer Tata Motors shares hit a speed bump on Wednesday, with the scrip dropping up to 3.09 per cent to hit an intraday low of ₹686 per share.

 

However, at 9:20 AM, Tata Motors share was off day’s low, and was trading 2.53 per cent lower at ₹690. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading 0.32 per cent higher at 81,406.11 level.

 

Why did the Tata Motors share price fall?

 

Tata Motors shares fell after the company posted subdued numbers in the March quarter of financial year 2025 (Q4FY25), while missing estimates on several parameters. 

 

 

Tata Motors’ consolidated net profit tanked 51.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹8,556 crore in the March quarter of financial year 2025 (Q4FY25), from ₹17,528 crore in the March quarter of financial year 2024 (Q4FY24).

 

The company’s revenue rose merely 0.4 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹1,19,503 crore, from ₹1,19,033 crore a year ago.

 

At the operating level, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) edged up slightly (0.8 per cent Y-o-Y) to ₹16,818 crore in Q4FY25, from ₹16,685 crore in Q4FY24. Subsequently, Ebitda margin expanded just 5 basis points (bps) to 14.07 per cent, from 14.02 per cent a year ago.

 

“Despite external headwinds, Tata Motors sustained its strong performance in FY25, delivering its highest ever revenues and PBT(bei). On a consolidated basis the automotive business is now debt-free, reducing interest costs. This is both pleasing and significant as it reflects healthy business fundamentals delivered by a resilient team. Drawing strength from it, in this environment of heightened uncertainty, we will remain agile, proactively drive our growth agenda, reduce our cash breakeven further whilst continuing to invest in our future. With the shareholders also approving the demerger, we are on track to realise the full potential of each of the businesses,” said PB Balaji, group chief financial officer, Tata Motors.

 

Tata Motors dividend 

 

Tata Motors Board has recommended a final dividend of ₹6 per share, subject to shareholder approval.

 

Tata Motors outlook

 

Geopolitical tensions and tariff risks are making the business environment uncertain, Tata Motors said, in a statement. However, the global premium luxury and Indian domestic segments are expected to remain resilient. 

 

Backed by strong fundamentals, the company aims to stay focused on growth execution, customer service, and strict cost and cashflow management, while continuing to invest for the future, it added.

 

Tata Motors JLR performance

 

According to Tata Motors, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) posted its best quarterly and annual profits in a decade. Q4FY25 revenue stood at £7.7 billion, down 1.7 per cent Y-o-Y, while FY25 revenue was flat Y-o-Y at £29 billion. Q4 PBT (before exceptional items) rose to £875 million (versus £661 million Y-o-Y), and full-year PBT hit £2.5 billion, up 15 per cent Y-o-Y.

Earnings before interest and taxes (Ebit) margin for Q4 was 10.7 per cent (up 150 bps Y-o-Y), while FY25 Ebit margin was 8.5 per cent – both the highest in a decade.

  “The increase in profitability year-on-year reflects higher volumes and a reduction in depreciation and amortisation (D&A), partially offset by an increase in VME,” Tata Motors said. 

What are analysts saying about Tata Motors Q4 results?

 

Nuvama

 

Analysts at Nuvama said Q4FY25 Ebitda rose 1 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹16,640 crore, versus the estimate of ₹16,000 crore, driven by India CV gains, though JLR and India PV performance declined. 

 

The near-term JLR demand remains weak due to US tariff uncertainty and continued market share erosion in China. FY26E/27E Ebitda cut by 8 per cent/2 per cent.

 

Muted revenue/Ebitda CAGR of 3 per cent expected over FY25–27E. JLR volumes seen contracting 3 per cent CAGR due to Jaguar phase-out, China headwinds, and tariff impact, analysts said. 

 

India CV outlook is also soft, with 2 per cent CAGR projected due to high base, stable utilisation, and rising Railways competition. Therefore, analysts maintained ‘Reduce’ rating, while revising target price (TP) to ₹670 (from ₹720), based on sum-of-the-parts (SotP) valuation.

 

JM Financial

 

JLR Q4 Ebitda margin came in at 15.3 per cent, 30 bps below estimate, due to higher marketing spends, JM Financial analysts noted. India CV and PV Ebitda margin was stronger at 11.1 per cent, 120bps above estimate. 

 

Despite a US-UK tariff agreement in progress, analysts believe global uncertainty poses a key risk to JLR.

 

FY26 JLR volume estimate cut to -5 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebit margin assumption lowered to 8.5 per cent (from earlier 10 per cent). Analysts are now awaiting clarity at JLR Investor Day in June. Also, the domestic CV and PV outlook remains subdued.

 

Hence, analysts at JM Financial maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with March’27 TP of ₹810 (SOTP; standalone/JLR at 10x/2x EV/Ebitda).