US inflation data, crude, Iran crisis to steer bullion this week: Analysts

Upcoming US inflation figures, crude oil price movements, and geopolitical tensions in West Asia will be primary triggers for gold and silver prices, amid heightened speculation surrounding the global interest rate outlook, analysts said.

Investors will also keep an eye on consumer price data from Germany and China, GDP figures from the Eurozone, Japan and the UK, as well as China's trade data this week, they added.

"US inflation numbers would be the key trigger for bullion markets amid considerable speculation over the interest rate outlook," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 11.

 

"In gold, the prices look for resistance at Rs 1.57 lakh per 10 grams, while in case of silver we still maintain a positive bias till prices are above supports at Rs 2.31 lakh per kg," Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.

Last week, gold futures for October delivery fell Rs 3,514, or 2.2 per cent, to Rs 1.52 lakh per 10 grams, while silver declined Rs 4,786, or nearly 2 per cent, to Rs 2.37 lakh per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange.

"MCX gold witnessed volatile moves this week, with the first half seeing continued profit booking following last Friday's correction after the Fed indicated the possibility of a rate hike," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.

In global markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery slipped $53.3, or nearly 1.2 per cent, to end the week at $4,476.6 per ounce.

Silver dipped by 1.52 per cent to $66.75 per ounce in New York.

Mer said gold prices remained under pressure on Friday after stronger-than-expected US jobs data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this month.

Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage platform Lemonn, said bullion sold off as geopolitical concerns increasingly emerged as a rate risk rather than triggering a traditional safe-haven demand.

However, dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and indications that the Iran escalation could be contained pulled back rate-hike expectations during the week, leading to a retreat in the US dollar and bond yields, he added.

Silver saw sharper swings in both directions as its industrial demand is also sensitive to the interest rate trajectory, Garg said.

Meanwhile, global central banks continue to diversify their reserves. The People's Bank of China bought 20 tonnes of gold, marking its 21st consecutive month of purchases, taking its year-to-date buying to 60 tonnes and total reserves to 2,366 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data.