Rural demand will continue to outperform urban demand and companies having higher individual home builder exposure will remain better placed
Shree Cement, trading at highest valuations, is most vulnerable with demand under pressure and costs rising
Birla informed shareholders that cement demand for most of FY2020 was sluggish, with improvement expected December onwards
Improvement in per tonne profitability, despite sharp fall in volumes due to lockdown, may lead to earnings upgrade
While rural housing and infrastructure projects in remote areas would support cement consumption, urban-led demand is headed for a slowdown
Firm realisation and lower costs bode well for profitability
While a slowing economy had led to deceleration in demand, the lockdown has increased the pain, besides resulting in labour shortages and delay in project execution
Experts say that the cement demand during the first quarter of the financial year is typically led by housing (60-65 per cent), followed by infrastructure segment (20-25 per cent).
For the cement sector, recovery would be prolonged by the depressed real estate sector, muted spends on Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) and lower Capex (capital expenditure) by the government
In the recent past, demand remained muted in north, central and western India at 3-5 per cent and volume growth declined by around five per cent in south India
All India cement volume growth between April and September declined in the range of 2 to 4 per cent. The sector is expected to end both the calendar as well as the financial year with flat demand grow
With growth having shrunk 0.5 per cent year-on-year during FY20 so far, as per latest estimates, price recovery seems distant
Some industry players, however, warn that price recovery is supply-led and not demand
September 2019 witnessed a steeper price cut in non-trade segment, as demand dry-up in the trade segment led the companies to push more volume in non-trade segment
Roads, urban infra and commercial realty to drive demand
Energy costs may limit September quarter profitability, but rising demand and lower capacity additions bode well for future prospects