Page 9 - Consumption
The silver lining for the consumption story
The consumption cycle appears poised for a turnaround. Three elements have to come together to see concerted growth in this segment. These are timing, income and finance. Timing is important because there typically are seasonal variations in the spending cycles of households, which coincide with the harvest (October-November and April-May) for farm-related households, bonus/incentive payments in the organised sector (April-June) and festivals (September-December) for all households. Second, income is evidently required because households spend when income increases by more than food inflation, as normally non-food spending is based on what gets left over after spending on food. Third, when one spends on consumer durable goods or automobiles, access to finance is even more critical.At present, all these three elements point in the same direction. A good harvest will ensure spending is on track and would be of the order of an incremental Rs 15,000-20,000 crore. Payouts from the pay comm
Consumption on a roll
The boom in retail spending is a bright spot
Strong recovery in FY17 on consumption boost: Morgan Stanley
He said today the economy is already witnessing a trend similar to that of 1998-02 in terms of private capex weakness, with the only two factors that are different in the present cycle -- strong public capex and higher FDI inflows
 "Strong recovery in FY17 on consumption boost: Morgan Stanley")