But gross value added growth picks up pace in Q1; rains, lower inflation may help in consumption recovery
The high difference noticed in the GVA and GDP growth during the 3 rd and 4 th quarter of FY24 has eased in Q1FY25
India's gross domestic product slowed to a quarter low of 6.7 per cent in April-June this fiscal against 8.2 per cent in the year-ago period, mainly due to poor showing by the farm sector, according to government data. India remains the fastest-growing major economy, as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 4.7 per cent. The agriculture sector recorded a 2 per cent growth, down from 3.7 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Friday. However, the growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated to 7 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal compared to 5 per cent in the year-ago period. The previous GDP low was 6.2 per cent in January-March 2023.
Despite strong growth relative to other economies, India is lagging on job creation and more inclusive economic growth
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Monday joined other watchers forecasting a slip in the economic growth and estimated India's real GDP growth to come at 7.1 per cent for the June quarter. The economists said the growth in gross value added (GVA) will fall below 7 per cent to 6.7-6.8 per cent for the April-June period this fiscal when compared to the year-ago period. "As per our 'Nowcasting Model', the forecasted GDP growth for Q1 FY25 would be 7.0-7.1 per cent, and GVA is at 6.7-6.8 per cent with a downward bias," the economists said. It can be noted that the real GDP growth had come at 7.8 per cent in the June quarter last year and the preceding March quarter. A slew of analysts have been pointing to a moderation in economic activity in the June quarter, mainly driven by softer manufacturing and lower government spending due to the general elections. The report also said that given the uncertain global growth outlook and the softening inflation, there is a space f
Slowdown in key drivers due to LS polls and high base effect: Analysts
The only available yardstick for evaluating the tightness of monetary policy is the real interest rate. The nominal repo rate is useless for this purpose
While states do release district-wise data, it is usually made available with a time lag and not updated frequently across states
The credit rating agency expects India's GDP to grow by 6.8 per cent for the full fiscal year 2024-25, lower than the 8.2 per cent achieved in 2023-24
Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Saturday said the government remains committed to fairness, simplicity and equity in the tax system. He said the government's ongoing efforts are to simplify tax laws, improve tax compliance, and support economic growth through prudent fiscal policies and the Union budget was in that direction. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had said a comprehensive review would be done on direct taxes over the next six months aiming at making direct taxes simpler to reduce disputes. "Tax growth had reached 14 per cent, outpacing GDP growth due to better compliance and collection efficiency," Malhotra said in a post-budget interactive session with stakeholders. He commended both tax administrators and taxpayers for their efforts and asked for continued cooperation to further enhance tax compliance and administration. Malhotra assured taxpayers that the government aims to simplify and make it easier to understand and make the process as hassle-free as
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) on Wednesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5 per cent from 7.1 per cent projected earlier on expectation of improved consumption demand. It said The ongoing growth momentum led by government capex, deleveraged balance sheets of corporates/banks, and incipient private corporate capex cycle has now found support from the union government budget. The budget promises to bolster agricultural/rural spending, improve credit delivery to MSMEs and incentivise employment creation in the economy. "Ind-Ra believes these measures would help in broad basing the consumption demand," the rating agency said while revising up its GDP growth estimate for FY25 to 7.5 per cent. Ind-Ra's growth projection is higher than that of RBI which projected FY25 growth at 7.2 per cent and Finance Ministry's Economic Survey which estimated GDP expansion between 6.5-7 per cent. Ind-Ra expects Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) to grow to a
PM Modi said emphasis on skill, research, innovation and job based knowledge necessary for making 'Viksit Bharat'
The Bill for setting up a National Financial Information Registry (NFIR) is in the advanced stage of preparation, and it may be introduced in the next session of Parliament, Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth has said. "It is at an advanced stage. It is in the closing stages of inter-ministerial consultation. We will finalise the Bill soon," he told PTI in a post-budget interview. However, he said, it cannot be introduced in the ongoing session of Parliament but may be in the next session. The objective is to build a public infrastructure for credit-related information, and the right information can be made available by the NFIR to lending agencies. A National Financial Information Registry will serve as the central repository of financial and ancillary information. This will facilitate the efficient flow of credit, promote financial inclusion, and foster financial stability. The passage of the Bill will enable in setting up of a registry and thus help in consolidating all finan
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Core PCE price index rises at 2.9% rate
The Budget also places emphasis on leveraging the power of women in the workforce
Speaking on the tourism sector, Pitti said that he expects the government to put some more focus on tourism as it provides many employment opportunities
Expectations (as measured by pre-budget equity market performance), wrote analysts at Morgan Stanley in a note, are important in determining what the market does immediately after the budget
Government must strategically expand the fiscal space to face any exogenous shocks
The economists said the fiscal deficit target for 2024-25 could be slightly lowered, from the 5.1 per cent estimate laid out in the Interim Budget earlier this year