Page 13 - Icra

Road logistics industry anticipates favourable demand in FY2024: ICRA

Rating agency ICRA on Wednesday said that it anticipates a favourable demand scenario for the road logistics sector in FY2024, aided by stable domestic consumption and investment demand. It said the industry's revenue growth is pegged at 6-9 per cent in FY2024 on an elevated base of FY2023, driven primarily by demand from varied segments like e-commerce, FMCG, retail, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and industrial goods. "ICRA expects the outlook for the sector to remain stable," it said. According to ICRA, downside risks to the estimates remain from any material tapering of demand due to elevated inflation and interest rates and global supply-demand shifts impacting the Indian economic scenario. The industry debt coverage metrics are expected to ease marginally in FY2024 compared to the FY2023 levels with a likely contraction in operating margins because of inflationary input cost pressures, primarily elevated crude oil prices and debt-funded capital expenditure for vehicle replacemen

Alcohol beverage industry may see margin contraction in FY24: ICRA

The domestic alcohol beverages (alcobev) industry is expected to have revenue growth of 8-10 per cent in 2023-24 but operating margins may contract by 90-140 basis points due to input cost pressure, a report by rating agency ICRA stated. The industry revenues are estimated to grow, helped by volume growth and product mix benefits, the report based on a sample set of domestic alcobev companies said. "Industry operating profit margin (OPM) to contract by ~90-140 basis points in FY24 due to input cost pressure, especially grain prices and packaging materials," it said. The alcobev industry witnessed a strong revival in the last fiscal in FY23 led by a healthy demand across both segments -spirits and beer, after two consecutive pandemic-hit years of FY21 and FY22 "During Q1 FY2024, the spirits industry reported a 13 per cent YoY increase in revenues despite being the lean season for the segment, while the beer industry, despite being the peak season, witnessed a marginal decline of ~1%

Footwear industry likely to register moderate growth of 7-8% in FY24: ICRA

The footwear industry is likely to register a moderate growth of 7-8 per cent in the current fiscal against 28 per cent in FY23, a report by Icra said on Thursday. The industry witnessed a muted revenue growth in the first half of FY24, mainly on account of factors like sluggish volume growth and no significant increase in average selling price, it added. The mass segment faces headwinds, and demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the near term, though sales recovery during the festive and wedding season in H2 FY2024 could "partially offset muted revenue growth in H1". "While some recovery is expected in H2 FY2024, overall revenue growth is likely to moderate sharply to around 7-8 per cent in FY24, with companies focusing on the premium segment expected to perform well," said Icra. On the input side, softening raw material (RM) prices are estimated to support the operating margin (OPM) in H1 FY2024. However, increasing RM prices since August 2023 are likely to impact the .

Domestic demand for non-ferrous metals to grow 9% over two fiscals: ICRA

The domestic demand growth rate for non-ferrous metals is expected to remain healthy at 9 per cent in the next two financial years, according to Icra. The ratings agency also informed that the non-ferrous metal industry's profit margins to remain under pressure amid weak global environment. Aluminium, copper and zinc are some of the non ferrous metals. "The domestic demand growth rate is expected to remain healthy at 9 per cent in the next two fiscals and would sharply outpace the expected rate of global demand growth. Thus, Icra has maintained stable outlook on the sector," the agency said. Jayanta Roy, Senior Vice-President and Group Head, Corporate Sector Ratings, Icra, said the global consumption of non-ferrous metals decelerated during the current calendar year due to sluggish demand conditions, primarily in the developed nations. He further said that while there has been a partial recovery in demand from China compared to the lacklustre performance in the previous calendar y

RBI's rate setting body starts deliberations amid expectation of status quo

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-headed Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its three-day meeting on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on the rate front in its bi-monthly monetary policy review. The policy review will be announced on Friday morning. In case of a status quo, interest rates for retail, as well as corporate borrowers, would remain stable. Experts believe that the Reserve Bank will retain the benchmark rate at 6.5 per cent in view of the elevated inflation and global factors. The Reserve Bank started increasing the policy rate in May 2022 in tranches, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and took it to 6.5 per cent in February this year. Since then, it has kept the rate unchanged in the last three successive bi-monthly monetary policy reviews. "The credit policy this time will most likely continue with the existing rate structure as well as policy stance. Hence, the repo rate will be retained at 6.5 per cent with the stance of withdrawal of accommodation," .

Centre sticks to market borrowing plan for H2FY24; introduces 50-year bond

To borrow Rs 6.55 trillion in second half

India's export of cut, polished diamonds may fall by 22% in FY24: ICRA

India's export of cut and polished diamonds is projected to decline by 22 per cent to USD 17.2 billion in the current fiscal due to weakened demand from the key consuming nations, according to rating agency Icra. In the first five months of the current fiscal, cut and polished diamond exports witnessed a sharp year-on-year decline of 31 per cent following lower export volumes and higher polished diamond prices, it said. Export of cut and polished diamonds has been on a declining trend since the first half of 2022-23, it added. "The export contraction is primarily being driven by weak underlying demand conditions in key consuming nations like the US and Europe due to the inflationary pressures, leading to a shift in spending away from diamonds," Icra Vice President and Sector Head Sakshi Suneja said in a statement. The demand from China, which accounts for 10-15 per cent of the global demand, has also not picked up meaningfully so far, she said. In addition, competition from lab-gr

Private defence companies likely to sell Rs 60,000 crore arms to MoD

In Feb 2018, the MoD established two defence industrial corridors to serve as engines of economic development and growth of defence industrial base in the country

Credit growth to moderate to 13.2 pc in FY24, NPAs to improve further: Icra

Credit growth in the banking system's will moderate to 12.1-13.2 per cent in the current fiscal from 15.4 per cent in the year-ago period, a domestic rating agency said on Thursday. Asset quality improvement will continue, while the Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio is expected to come down to 2.8-3 per cent by March 2024, as against 3.7 per cent at the end of the June quarter, domestic rating agency Icra said. Amid the high growth in unsecured credit, the rating agency said there is nothing much to be concerned about on the front, and the vulnerable retail book remains low and manageable. Icra Co-Group Head Anil Gupta termed the credit growth as "robust", despite the slight moderation from the percentage growth perspective, and added that the agency expects the quantum of credit to also be lower at Rs 16.5-18 lakh crore as against the Rs 18.2 lakh crore in the year-ago period. Banks will chase more deposits this year, and the overall deposit growth for FY24 is expected to c

Healthy loan book growth likely to drive profitability of banks in FY24

Analysts at the agency maintained a positive outlook on the banking sector amid expectation that credit growth in the banking sector in the financial year 2023-24

Domestic steel demand to grow 9-10% in FY24, says revised ICRA estimate

Domestic steel demand, ICRA said, was poised to grow at a double-digit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5-11 per cent between FY2022 and FY2024

Domestic air passenger traffic rises about 23% to 1.24 cr in August: ICRA

India's domestic air passenger traffic rose about 23 per cent year-on-year to 1.24 crore in August and was 6 per cent higher than the pre-Covid level (August 2019) of around 1.18 crore, credit rating agency Icra said on Thursday. On a sequential basis, the growth in traffic during the previous month was around 3.2 per cent, with 1.21 crore passengers flying on domestic routes in July, it added. Also, the capacity deployment in the reporting month grew 10 per cent against August 2022 and lower by 1 per cent in comparison to the pre-COVID levels (August 2019), Icra said. The ratings agency said the outlook on the domestic aviation industry is 'stable' on the back of the fast-paced recovery in domestic passenger traffic in the previous fiscal and expectations of the trend continuing in this fiscal as well. Moreover, the industry witnessed improved pricing power, reflected in the better yields and thus the revenue per available seat kilometre cost per available seat kilometre ...

ICRA revises outlook for petrochemicals to negative profitability concerns

Rating agency Icra has revised the outlook on the petrochemicals and basic chemicals industries to negative from stable due to weak demand and global supply glut. Outlook on specialty chemicals remains stable, with profitability expected to moderate in FY2024, but not trigger an outlook change at this stage, it said, adding that the petrochemical and basic chemicals industries are likely to face pressure on operating rates and profitability. "The petrochemicals and basic chemicals industries have been facing headwinds on account of weak demand amid a global supply glut, owing to capacity expansions in several chemicals. "This is likely to exert pressure on the operating rates as well as profitability of the petrochemical and basic chemical players," Icra said in a statement. As for the specialty chemicals segment, while profitability is expected to moderate in FY2024, the extent is expected to be mild enough to not trigger an outlook change at this stage. According to Prashant ...

Net office leasing across 6 cities may fall 10% this fiscal: ICRA

Rating agency ICRA on Tuesday said net leasing of office space across six major cities is estimated to decline by 10 per cent this fiscal, from 57 million square feet in the previous year. The fall in office demand coupled with an influx of huge supply in FY2024, would result in a marginal rise in vacancy levels by 60 basis points to 15.5 per cent by the end of FY2024. These top six cities are Mumbai, Bengaluru, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Pune. Its sample includes 22 commercial office operators totalling 165 million square feet area. "The office developers are expected to witness a revenue growth of 11-13 per cent in FY2024 for ICRA's sample set of non-REIT companies, supported by scheduled rent escalation and improvement in occupancy levels of reputed office players," the agency said in a statement. Further, the rental rates are estimated to rise by 3-5 per cent YoY in FY2024, driven by contracted escalations/lease renewals at higher rates. ICRA's outlook on the commercia

10-12% price hike in commercial vehicles likely: Credit rating agency Icra

There are a number of proposed regulatory changes that could further increase the cost of CVs

New regulation can raise commercial vehicle prices by 10-12%: ICRA

Implementation of multiple proposed regulatory specifications can push up commercial vehicle prices by 10-12 per cent, ratings agency ICRA said on Monday. In its report on the Indian commercial vehicle industry, ICRA said the domestic automotive industry is undergoing rapid transformations, with increased focus by the government on implementing emission norms, safety systems and other standards that will bring the country at par with other major automotive markets. "Within the Indian automotive industry, the commercial vehicle (CV) sector has been the focus, given that CVs account for the major part of vehicular emissions in the country," it said, adding mandatory standards towards driver comfort and safety can help improve the driving conditions and road safety to a large extent. Accordingly, ICRA said there have been multiple regulatory interventions in the recent past, with the industry adopting stringent emission standards in a relatively short span of time, as well as driver ..

India's GST collection increases 11% to Rs 1.59 trn on better compliance

The government expects average monthly GST collection to be Rs 1.6-1.65 trillion this financial year

IT firms' growth in Q1 FY24 lowest in 10 qtrs, slowdown to get worse: ICRA

Order book and deal pipeline of most companies remain strong, says ratings agency

IT services sector's revenue growth to slow down to 3% in FY24: ICRA

Indian IT services sector's revenue growth will slow down to 3 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.2 per cent in the previous financial year, a domestic ratings company said on Tuesday. Icra Ratings said the profitability will also take a beating in this financial year and the operating profit margin will narrow by up to 1 percentage point to 20-21 per cent. The topline growth will come down to 3-5 per cent in FY24 from the 9.2 per cent posted in FY23, the agency said, attributing the slowdown to softening demand. The agency's sector head Deepak Jotwani said there has been "persistent uncertainty" in the key markets for IT companies which has resulted in pauses and deferral of non-critical projects and slowdown in discretionary IT spends by key sectors like banking, financial services and insurance, retail, technology and communication. As per industry lobby Nasscom, the sector directly employs over 50 lakh people while analysts say it was crucial for the post-pandemic recovery o

ICRA estimates GDP growth at 8.5% in Q1, maintains FY24 forecast at 6%

India's economic growth will accelerate to 8.5 per cent in the April-June period of the current fiscal from the 6.1 per cent growth rate witnessed in the preceding January-March quarter, Icra Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency attributed the faster growth to a supportive base and also a recovery in the services sector. Though its estimate is higher than the RBI's forecast of 8.1 per cent, Icra's chief economist Aditi Nayar said the second half of the fiscal is likely to witness headwinds, which will prove a dampener. Nayar said erratic rainfall, narrowing differentials with year-ago commodity prices, and possible slowdown in momentum of government capex "as we approach the Parliamentary elections will limit the growth", and maintained her 6 per cent real GDP growth estimate for FY24 which is lower than RBI's 6.5 per cent. In the first quarter, unseasonal heavy rains, lagged effect of the monetary tightening and weak external demand exerted a downward pressure on