Page 5 - Indian Economy

West Asia war impact managed well, but some concerns remain: Madan Sabnavis

More importantly, the inflation has been kept under control as of now with the government absorbing a large part of the crude oil cost increase.

Prolonged West Asia shock raises stagflation risks for India's economy

The most visible difference will be on the balance of payments front

In open letter to PM, Bernstein flags structural risks to India's growth

Global brokerage Bernstein cautions India may under-deliver on growth potential without reforms, flagging risks from AI disruption, weak manufacturing gains and rising welfare spending

Riding out the West Asia storm: Testing India's economic resilience

Against this backdrop, the latest IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook still marks India out as an outlier of strength. India's FY27 growth forecast has been revised upward to 6.5 per cent

India likely to breach budgeted fiscal deficit target for FY27: BMI

India's fiscal deficit is likely to breach the budgeted target for current fiscal and hit 4.5 per cent of GDP as the government's policy response to the West Asia conflict could strain public finances, research firm BMI said on Wednesday. The government in 2026-27 Budget had projected a 4.3 per cent fiscal deficit, a tad lower than 4.4 per cent as per revised estimates for 2025-26. BMI also expects the government to introduce policies to redirect critical inputs to key industries, restrain business costs and improve financial support for firms. BMI said it also expects the government to consider restrictions on exports of scarce inputs such as helium and sulphur -- used for producing semiconductor chips. It said that since sulphur is also an important ingredient for making fertilisers, the government will strive to minimise disruptions to the agriculture sector, which employs 43 per cent of India's workforce. The government will seek to restrain cost increases for businesses affec

India's economy projected to grow at 6.4% in 2026, 6.6% in 2027: UN report

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

'Iran war may be as disruptive for India as Covid; long-term impact likely'

Although the government is sticking to its forecasts of 6.8 per cent-7.2 per cent for the fiscal year through March 2027, several economists have already started to downgrade their projections

Datanomics: Rupee weakens, Indian economy slips to sixth-largest

India's GDP in domestic currency terms records a CAGR of 8.56 per cent between 2021 and 2025, reflecting highest economic growth among major economies

IMF lifts India FY27 growth to 6.5% as lower US tariffs offset risks

IMF has raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, saying lower US tariffs could offset the impact of West Asia tensions even as global growth and trade outlook weaken

Old narratives, new findings & future implications in revised GDP estimates

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued

Oil shock may slow India's growth by up to 80 bps: S&P Global Ratings

India's robust macroeconomic and financial sector fundamentals are likely to cushion the impact of a sustained oil price shock, though economic growth could slow by up to 80 basis points if crude averages USD 130 per barrel in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings. Under its stress scenario, corporate earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) could decline 15-25 per cent in FY27, with leverage rising by 0.5x-1x, while banking sector asset quality may weaken, pushing bad loans to around 3.5 per cent. "India isn't immune to the shocks reverberating from the Middle East war. The pain of higher energy prices and supply disruptions may persist for months, crimping economic activity across households, corporations, and banks," S&P Global Ratings said in a report. However, strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalised banks and a resilient external position provide buffers against the impact. S&P Global Ratings assumes Brent crude at USD 130 per ..

The rise of ‘Mounjaro brides’: How weight loss injections are entering India’s wedding economy

From bridal skincare to fitness makeovers, India’s pre-wedding industry is evolving fast. Now, weight-loss injections like Mounjaro are becoming part of that transformation, raising questions about he

Reforms in India: From ease of doing business to ease of trusting systems

Trust is no longer just a matter of perception; it is a hard economic and governance variable

West Asia oil shock threatens India despite robust buffers: World Bank

High oil prices pose risks but India's strong buffers, resilient exports and policy space can help navigate global uncertainty, says the World Bank

Iran shock shows India's external vulnerability, tests growth ambitions

The truly unsettling element in the scenario has been the fall in the exchange rate of the rupee. The fall predates the Iran conflict

India turns crises into opportunity, emerges stronger: Shaktikanta Das

India has consistently shown remarkable resilience during global crises, not only surviving them but also transforming through the turbulence to emerge stronger, said Shaktikanta Das, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, on Thursday. Addressing the AIMA National Leadership Conclave here, Das said, "Through each crisis, India has not merely survived. It has in fact emerged remarkably and measurably stronger". He noted that the global economy continues to face an "unsettled and charged environment" marked by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain disruptions and uneven growth, with risks "decisively skewed to the downside". Against this backdrop, the former RBI governor highlighted India's strong economic performance, stating that real GDP growth stood at 7.6 per cent in FY26, with an average growth of 7.8 per cent over the past five years. "India's resilience does not alone explain the full story. India did not just endure the period of turbulence. It transformed through it,

India's projected 6.6% growth in FY27 skewed to downside: World Bank

Retail inflation is projected at ​4.9% for the current fiscal year ‌reflecting higher food and ​energy prices ‌and exchange depreciation pressure

RBI sees resilience despite West Asia crisis as it keeps repo rates steady

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the West Asia conflict has raised risks to growth and inflation via oil, trade, and supply chains, but government steps on supply chains and exports may limit the imp

India has been resilient, weathered global shocks well: EAM Jaishankar

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Saturday said India has come through solidly from global shocks that recently tested its resilience, an apparent reference to the ongoing military conflict in West Asia. Speaking at the convocation ceremony of IIM Raipur, Jaishankar emphasised that India has managed both domestic and external challenges fairly successfully. He observed that the impact of conflicts on even distant societies has been profound, which is a testimony to the extent of globalisation. "No one can dispute that multiple global shocks have recently tested our resilience and that India has come through them solidly," Jaishankar added. The crisis in West Asia, which began in February after the US and Israel attacked Iran, has impacted global fuel supply and triggered a shortage of hydrocarbons. Jaishankar stressed that there is no getting away from building robust national capabilities, which he noted is the most effective way for de-risking and developing leverage. H

Chatroom: 'Absolute Confiscation' need not lead only to destruction'

Absolute confiscation vests goods with govt but disposal may include auction, sale or destruction; overvaluation attracts penalties under customs act, while GST export lapses trigger tax liability