Marco Rubio to meet Russia's Lavrov in Malaysia amid Ukraine tensions

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart will meet Thursday in Malaysia for what could be a testy conversation as tensions between the countries rise over Moscow's increasing attacks on Ukraine and questions about whether Russia's leader is serious about a peace deal.

Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are to see each other in Kuala Lumpur, where both men are attending the annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum, which brings together all 10 ASEAN members and their most important diplomatic partners, including Russia, China, Japan, South Korea, the Europeans and the US.

The meeting is set to take place shortly after the US resumed some shipments of defensive weapons to Ukraine following a pause ostensibly for the Pentagon to review domestic munitions stocks that was cheered in Moscow.

 

The resumption comes as Russia fires escalating air attacks on Ukraine and as President Donald Trump has become increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin is not, he's not treating human beings right, Trump said during a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, explaining the pause's reversal. It's killing too many people. So we're sending some defensive weapons to Ukraine, and I've approved that.

A US diplomatic push could be overshadowed by tariff threats  Rubio will also see other foreign ministers, including many whose countries face tariffs set to be imposed on August 1. That threat could overshadow the top diplomat's first official trip to Asia, just as the US seeks to boost relations with Indo-Pacific nations to counter China's growing influence in the region.

Trump notified several countries on Monday and Wednesday that they will face higher tariffs if they don't make trade deals with the US. Among them are eight of ASEAN's 10 members.

State Department officials said tariffs and trade will not be Rubio's focus during the meetings, which Trump's Republican administration hopes will prioritise maritime safety and security in the South China Sea, where China has become increasingly aggressive toward its small neighbours, as well as combating transnational crime.

But Rubio may be hard-pressed to avoid the tariff issue that has vexed some of America's closest allies and partners in Asia, including Japan and South Korea and most members of ASEAN, which Trump says would face 25 per cent tariffs if there is no deal.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has warned that global trade is being weaponised as US tariffs loom over Southeast Asia. Speaking at an ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Wednesday, Anwar urged the bloc to strengthen regional trade and reduce reliance on external powers.

Rubio's talking points on the China threat will not resonate with officials whose industries are being battered by 30-40 per cent tariffs, said Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific during the Obama administration.

When Anwar said "ASEAN will approach challenges as a united bloc' he wasn't talking about Chinese coercion but about US tariffs, Russel noted.

8 of ASEAN's 10 members face major tariff hikes  Among ASEAN states, Trump has so far announced tariffs on almost all of the 10 members of the bloc, which would face a 25 per cent tariff that could specifically hit its electronics and electrical product exports to the United States.

Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz said Wednesday that while Malaysia is ready to resume tariff negotiations, it would not cross its red lines, including US requests for changes to government procurement, halal certification, medical standards and digital taxes.

Trump sent tariff letters to two more ASEAN members Wednesday: Brunei, whose imports would be taxed at 25 per cent, and the Philippines, at 20 per cent.

Vietnam recently agreed to a trade deal for 20 per cent tariffs on its imports, while Singapore wasn't part of Trump's original April 2 tariffs. Both are ASEAN countries. The Trump administration has courted most Southeast Asian nations in a bid to blunt or at least temper China's push to dominate the region.

In Kuala Lumpur, Rubio also will likely come face-to-face with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his brief visit of roughly 36 hours.

Russel noted that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is a veteran of such gatherings and fluent in ASEAN principles and conventions, while Rubio is a rookie trying to sell an 'America First' message to a deeply sceptical audience.

Issues with China, including on trade, human rights, the militarisation of the South China Sea and China's support for Russia in Ukraine, remain substantial.

US officials continue to accuse China of resupplying and revamping Russia's military industrial sector, allowing it to produce additional weapons that it can use attack Ukraine.