 "Mamata Banerjee")
In the second instalment of our 2016 retrospective, Business Standard recaps a year that stood out for serial tremors in local and global politics — from ‘surgical strikes’ and Jayalalithaa’s death to Donald Trump’s shock victory in the US polls and Brexit.
Surgical strike across the Line of Control
Beyond a boundary
Before the surgical strikes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had told Army Chief Dalbir Singh that he did not want any casualties on the Indian side and no vertical escalation. The strikes have been widely celebrated in the country though how much traction they will get as a campaign tool in the forthcoming Assembly elections is a matter of speculation. The political objectives to deter Pakistan from its indulgence in infiltration and cross-border terrorism and raising costs for the deep state have not been achieved. In his book, Choices: Inside the Making of India’s Foreign Policy, former National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon has said that after 26/11 Mumbai, he pressed for immediate military retaliation either against LeT in Muridke in Punjab or against their camps in PoK or against the Inter-Services Intelligence because it would have been “emotionally satisfying”. The modest surgical strikes, it is clear, were ordered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for political and emotional satisfaction without consideration for the likely tangible gains that might accrue in curbing cross-border attacks: Which are negative. The offensive action has shown Modi as a “strong” leader, unafraid to strike back at Pakistan. But, will cross-border terrorism end as a result? Hardly.
Aditi Phadnis
Mamata Banerjee wins
Didi returns
Her Trinamool Congress (TMC), bettered its performance; in 2011, it had won 184 seats in the Assembly elections; this time, it bagged 212.
Banerjee’s win seemed certain three months before the elections. But mid-March, the Narada news portal released video footage that showed MLAs, MPs and ministers from the TMC allegedly accepting cash for favours to a fictitious company.
Narada managed to rake up memories of the Saradha chit fund scam that was long forgotten. The Saradha scam, involving some TMC leaders, came to light in 2013, when the money pooling group, which had collected Rs 2,000-Rs 3,000 crore, collapsed.
But even as Trinamool was battling these demons, the Vivekananda flyover collapsed, taking down 26 people. The 2.2 km elevated road was conceived by the Left Front government, but the work continued during the TMC regime and major design flaws went unnoticed.
The accident also brought to the fore the “syndicate raj”, an extortion racket run by unemployed youth primarily affiliated allegedly to the ruling party, to force inferior materials on developers at a premium. Yet when the election results were announced, it was Banerjee’s critics who had to eat humble pie.
Ishita Ayan Dutt
Jayalalithaa’s death
Strength of a woman
She became Tamil Nadu chief minister in 1991 after the death of her mentor M G Ramachandran and the division of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Her first term as chief minister saw her take two important steps. She said after she became chief minister: “It is my firm conviction that a woman should marry only if she wants to raise a family, not simply because she needs a man to support her”. Some 100,000 women were given entrepreneurship training so that they could set up their own small industries. Female infanticide was prevalent in many pockets of Tamil Nadu. So Jayalalithaa launched the cradle baby scheme: If families did not want girl babies, they were invited to leave them in cradles placed outside social welfare centres, no questions asked. The government adopted and brought up these babies. A fixed deposit of Rs 5,000 was placed in the adopted child’s name and when the child attained 18 years of age, she received Rs 20,000.
Jayalalithaa also launched all-women police stations. “It had been brought to my notice that women were suffering untold persecution and cruelty in their homes but very often they were reluctant to go to complain to a police station, manned entirely by men. So I first started one all-women police station in Madras. It became so popular that I ended up opening 57 such police stations all over the state” she said, at a conference. Jayalalithaa’s talent lay in appealing to women without alienating the men, principally because she also launched many schemes that included them — subsidised canteens and dispensaries among them. Little wonder, then, that after her death, the AIADMK is keen to have another woman as the leader.
No one is talking about the seamier side of Jayalalithaa’s three terms as CM: The corruption, the use of the state apparatus to punish political rivals, the trampling of human rights in Tamil Nadu. And yet, it cannot be denied that Tamil Nadu is one of the most urbanised and industrialised states where it is easiest to do business. Will her successors rule with the same verve? Unlikely, though 2017 will tell the story.
Aditi Phadnis
The rise of Kanhaiya Kumar
Teachable moments for 'Azadi'
Udit Misra
The Kashmir debacle
Back to the future?
Is Kashmir a law and order issue or is there a bigger political grievance over which the governments — both at the Centre and in the state — are in denial?
The real issue through the year has been one of leadership of the state: Who will lead? Who should lead? The militant narrative continues to occupy mindspace. But the nationalists have won an undeniable victory in Jammu. These two have always been two parallel lines but the gap between them has widened significantly after Burhan Wani’s killing.
The fact is Wani was a young romantic leader who had limited but fervent followers because he could have developed as a challenge to the existing militant/separatist leaders such as Yaseen Malik and the gerontocracy of the Hurriyat. In his death, those in Kashmir who bitterly resent the occupation of orchards and schools by the coercive apparatus of the Indian state — the army, the paramilitary forces and others — saw a death blow to their movement. The rage of the people spilled out into the open and everything that represented the Indian state became a target, including government-run schools. It did not help that Mehbooba Mufti, new chief minister, took an unconscionably long time to come to grips with the situation.
Indo-Pakistan relations, which are deeply influenced by happenings in Kashmir, have been described as a game of snake and ladders — with very few ladders. Around this time last year, Prime Minister Modi was paying a social visit to Raiwind to attend a wedding in Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s family. He can’t even start thinking about any such gestures in the prevailing atmosphere. But then, as the song goes: Woh subah kabhi to aayegi (the dawn will come one day).
Aditi Phadnis
Rohith Vemula's suicide
Anti-national angst
His death sparked student and Dalit protests across the country, which soon snowballed into a vicious debate on nationalism. In Parliament, the Opposition attacked the government after it came to light that Vemula was suspended when Union Human Resource Development Minister Smriti Irani forwarded a letter, written by Union Minister of State for Labour Bandaru Dattareya, to the HCU vice-chancellor. Irani responded with histrionics, which earned the government more brickbats.
The Dalit movement has become stronger and more vocal over the year, with more caste outrages coming to light. Now, it is likely to play a bigger part in electoral politics.
Uttaran Das Gupta
Chetan Chauhan appointed head of NIFT
Power play in fashion
Kanika Datta
Prohibition in Bihar
Arrested development
The law was challenged in courts. On September 30, the Patna High Court quashed it. The government responded by notifying a new law on October 2 (Gandhi Jayanti). It also challenged the high court order in the Supreme Court, which, on October 7, stayed it.
Prohibition, which now threatens to fill up the jails in the state, has won Nitish Kumar some accolades among a vote bank he has cultivated over a decade: Rural women. Not satisfied with pushing abstinence in Bihar, the chief minister has taken the message to other states, with little or no success. Whether or not it will be his vehicle to the national stage in 2019 remains to be seen.
Uttaran Das Gupta
The Rio Olympics
Women on top
Malik’s march to bronze in the 58 kg category of women’s freestyle wrestling was equally emphatic. For the Rohtak grappler, who lost to eventual champion, Valeria Koblova, in the quarter-final, redemption arrived in the form of the repechage medal playoff. Pitted against the more formidable Aisuluu Tynybekova of Kyrgyzstan, the 24-year-old, much to the astonishment of her opponent and the crowd, overturned a 0-5 deficit to prevail 8-5. The sight of Tynybekova beating the mat in disbelief was one of the standout moments of Rio 2016.
The two ladies’ career trajectories, however, have been vastly different since that mystical month of August. Malik announced her engagement to fellow wrestler, Satyawart Kadian, soon after Rio, and has stayed off the mat since. Sindhu, on the other hand, has been steadily climbing up the world rankings, winning the China Open in November, and following that up with another podium finish at the Hong Kong Open. Hopefully, 2017 will bring more medals for both these remarkable women.
Dhruv Munjal
Donald Trump wins the White House
The Donald trumps the odds
Kanika Datta
Oil prices
Opec asserts its cutting edge
Just like all petroleum majors across the globe, Indian companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Oil India, Cairn India and even Reliance Industries have been impacted by the slump in crude price that started in mid-2014, though it helped Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation to come out of their perennial losses. Low global prices also helped the government decontrol diesel price and push LPG and kerosene towards market pricing in a phased manner. From an average of $39.88 a barrel in April 2016, the benchmark Indian basket climbed to $44.46 in November and is hovering above $55 in December. Though both policy makers and analysts say India is comfortable on the subsidy front till $55, a weakening rupee should be a cause of concern. The government can, however, not draw comfort from the fact that in a low price regime it had increased excise duty on petrol and diesel, and if global prices continue to rise, it will have to cushion the impact on consumers by cutting the duty rates, sacrificing some revenue.
Jyoti Mukul
Island mentality
Even before Donald Trump’s unlikely victory, 52 per cent of
Britons, who voted in a referendum, shocked the world on June 23 by opting to disengage from the 28-nation European Union (EU). In the immediate aftermath of Brexit, the pound plunged to an all-time low from which it has barely recovered, David Cameron resigned as prime minister, having staked his position on a positive outcome, and the Tory Party chose Theresa May as his successor. Not that this ended the uncertainty for global businesses —including the Indian IT sector —which see the United Kingdom as the entrepôt to the European market. May has announced that the Brexit process would begin not later than March next year but much depends on a Supreme Court ruling on whether Parliament, which has been decidedly anti-Brexit, needs to vote to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to disengage from the EU. Brexit has much larger implications on the tone and direction of global politics. Already, the demands for exit from other EU nations — France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden — are becoming increasingly strident and elections in France and Germany will determine the fate of one of the most remarkable economic projects in modern history. The fact that these calls are being made by the right-wing elements in these countries underlines the xenophobia motivating the pro-Brexit voters — specifically on the critical “free movement of labour” clause and the issue of participating in the EU’s controversial deal to accommodate West Asian refugees. The EU accounts for 40 per cent of Britain’s exports, and exit would remove the benefits of tariff and non-tariff barriers and many of the subsidies it receives from Brussels. But linked to this is the fate of the City, one of the world’s three major global financial centres. Given its flexibility and ability to survive adversities for centuries, the City may remain a global financial centre but the rest of Britain may well become the small island separated from the world by a ditch and a pond of popular caricature.
Kanika Datta
Philippines’ presidential election
Duterte’s punishing schedule
Despite a campaign that matched Donald Trump’s in obnoxiousness, with promises to kill more criminals and an endorsement of rape, Filipinos voted him in as President on May 9 this year. Since then Duterte has decided to replicate his mayoral techniques nationwide. During his speeches, he has repeatedly urged people of the country to kill drug addicts and criminals, and have instructed the police to shoot to kill. By September, the official death count was 2,500, and international and national human rights organisations called repeatedly for the extra-judicial killings to be stopped. Towards the end of the month, he compared the Drug War deaths with the Holocaust, provoking another international outcry. He also called US President Barack Obama “the son of a whore”, resulting in the latter cancelling a meeting with him. No matter, Duterte is leaning towards China anyway. Earlier this year, an international tribunal ruled against China’s occupation of the Spratley Islands. China has rejected the judgement and Duterte seems unwilling to provoke his powerful near neighbour. He ends the year wildly popular and unrepentant.
Uttaran Das Gupta
Ratifying the Paris Agreement
Climate change Trumped
Through the year, India lurched from one side of the argument to another. Rhetorically sticking to the need for lifestyle change — a pressure point for the developed countries — it vacillated on whether to ratify the climate agreement or not. Linking it to how much effort the US put in getting India membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group at one moment and de-linking it at another, the National Democratic Alliance government finally ratified the agreement when President Obama sought his legacy gift.
India then went a step further. It signed on to other climate agreements that it had steadfastly blocked so far — one on emissions from civil aviation and another on emissions from refrigerant gases. India’s International Solar Alliance, announced in end 2015 on a political instinct rather than solid homework, took baby steps in 2016. It didn’t get the US on board, as much as India had hoped for. It did get France.
As 2017 begins, the government will have to set the domestic rule book in place to record the country’s emissions at a scale depth and accuracy not matched before. Then act on it.
Nitin Sethi
The Panama Papers
The artful dodgers
Obermayer, his colleague Frederik Obermaier (no relation, but referred fondly as Brothers Obermay/ier by their colleagues) and the SZ management decided to share the information with the International Consortium of International Journalist. More than 400 journalists coordinated till the publication date of April 3. Protests erupted in Argentina, demanding the resignation of President Mauricio Macri; in the UK, Prime Minister David Cameron had the worst week, and was forced to publish his tax returns after it was revealed that a company run by his father in the Bahamas had paid no British taxes for three decades. In Iceland, Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson resigned. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's children were also named in documents prompting that country’s Supreme Court to order an investigation. And all this is only the tip of the iceberg.
Uttaran Das Gupta
Truck attacks in Nice and Berlin
ISIS’ new driving force
The jubilation would, however, be short-lived. Just as the fireworks were ending, a 19-tonne, white Renault Midlum cargo truck emerged on the Promenade and accelerated to 90km, ramming into pedestrians, crushing them under its wheels. The mayhem ended five minutes later, with the police shooting dead the driver, later identified as Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, a Tunisian settler. By then, 86 people had been killed and more than 400 injured.
Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack; President Francois Hollande declared that the state of emergency in the country, imposed after the Paris attack in November the previous year, would continue for three months. In December, a copycat attack occurred in Berlin, Germany, as a truck was driven into a crowded Christmas market near the Kaiser Wilhelm Memorial Church. The attacker, whose identity remains unknown, hijacked a black, Scania R 450 semi-trailer and drove it into the market, killing 12 and injuring 56. He managed to escape. A suspect, a Pakistani man, was arrested but had to be released for lack of evidence. Another suspect was killed in an encounter by the police in Milan. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for this attack, too.
Europe, reeling from a series of such attacks by Islamic terrorists and also Brexit, sits on the edge of precipice as the year draws to the close, with the current uncertainty about its future comparable only to World War II.
Uttaran Das Gupta
Failed coup in Turkey
A strongman’s Turkish treatment
The combined evidence of several purges of the armed forces in 2010 and 2013 (again, against alleged Gulen elements), increasingly brazen corruption, and growing attacks on the media and other critics of Erdogan, suggests that Turkey, once feted as an example of the virtues of liberal Islamism, is headed for more turmoil. Serial bomb blasts and the public murder of the Russian ambassador presage more crises in 2017. Erdogan’s announcement that Turkey was exiting the European Human Rights Convention is perhaps an early indicator of the distance he wants to place with the European Union, the common market Turkey had once aspired to join. A refugee-exchange deal, thus, hangs in the balance just as Islamic terror is rising in Europe. Given Turkey’s status as a frontline NATO power against the Islamic State, and its role in harbouring over two million refugees from this confrontation, plus a new US president sending friendly overtures to Erdogan’s enemy Vladimir Putin, European leaders will need to find new strategies to negotiate with a democratic dictator on the cusp of Europe and Asia.
Kanika Datta
Dilma Rousseff's impeachment
Brazil’s lost hope
When Dilma Rousseff was sworn in as the first woman president of Brazil on 1 January 2011, she was accompanied by soaring hopes. As a victim of Brazil’s military junta in the past, and protégé of the charismatic former President and immediate predecessor Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”), it was thought that she would continue the generous pro-poor programmes that made her party so popular. But economic growth soon slowed on the back of a slump in oil prices, the bonanza that had financed the subsidies to the poor. Within the first two years, Rousseff faced strikes from public sector workers, especially university professors, but her popularity remained high enough for her to be reelected in 2014.
But early 2015, the Petrobas scandal — in which Rousseff was implicated because she was on the company’s board when incidents of corruption occurred — broke. Massive protests began all over the country, demanding her impeachment. Not that this stopped her moving to protect Lula who has also been implicated in the Petrobras scandal. The push for construction of dams in the Amazon basin, leading to deforestation and flooding, was a step too far. She had already faced protests from workers at the dam construction projects in 2012, but had quelled these with the deployment of military police. All these serial crises accelerated her falling popularity in her second term. In the end, however, it was not these that tripped her but a minor charge of budgetary misconduct and responsibility for administrative failures.
On December 2, 2015, Eduardo Cunha, then president of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies, accepted an impeachment request against her and, on August 31, 2016, she was removed from office by a vote of 61-20, bringing an end to Brazil’s most successful leftist regimes.
Uttaran Das Gupta
