Greater chance of El Nino this year: Australian Weather Office

The possibility of dreaded El Nino coming in 2017 has become all the more real, with the Australian Weather Bureau (AWB) upgrading the status to 'El Nino Watch' which means that likelihood of this weather phenomenon forming in 2017 is now 50 per cent.

El Nino has had an over-bearing impact on Indian rains and 80 per cent of El Nino years has seen below-normal rains in the country, while 60 per cent have been outright drought years.

Till few weeks, back most meteorologists had forecast the possibility of El Nino at less than 50 per cent with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) pegged it at 40 per cent, but with each passing weak the possibility of a El Nino is getting more prominent.

"The recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Nino forming in 2017 has risen," the AWB said in its regular updates.

As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Nino WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Nino forming in 2017 is approximately 50 per cent, the AWB added.

AWB has one of the most authentic indicators of El Nino. It said that seven out of the eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Nino thresholds may be reached by July 2017.

If that happens, it can have an impact on India's southwest monsoon in 2017 as it would fall bang in the middle of four month season that will start from June.

An evolving El Nino is also equally harmful for Indian monsoon as experience from 2014 shows that a threshold El Nino could impact normal rains.

However, the AWB had a word of caution. It said that some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is another key determinant for India's southwest monsoon season is expected to remain neutral in the next few months.

The IOD happens closer to Indian monsoon and its impact is more pronounced than El Nino. As of now it is neutral, but it can turn positive which will lower the impact of a El Nino.

The state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet not willing to put its figure on El Nino's time and the impact it would have on Indian monsoon.

IMD said its first forecast expected sometime around April would make things clearer, but most weather scientists said it can't be known till May whether El Nino will impact Indian monsoon or not.

A normal southwest monsoon is vital for India's farming sector as more than half of the total agricultural land is rainfed, while the June to September rains provide more than 70 per cent of total moisture that the country receives in a year.

Good monsoon also lays down the base for a strong rabi harvest, which follows after the kharif harvest season.