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Without me, no one can form the next government." Or at least this is the hope nursed by former Karnataka chief minister Bookanakere Siddalingappa Yeddyurappa. While there is the usual politician's campaigning hyperbole in this statement, the man who ushered in the first Bharatiya Janata Party government south of the Vindhyas would be hoping, above all, to be the saffron party's nemesis in the Assembly elections with his newly launched Karnataka Janata Paksha.
KJP has fielded candidates in over 200 of the 224 Assembly constituencies. Analysts and pre-poll surveys predict that KJP, battling under the coconut symbol, will get between 10 and 15 seats. But more than the number of seats his party would secure, Yeddyurappa could inflict some serious damage on BJP candidates in various constituencies, particularly those predominated by Lingayats, the caste to which Yeddyurappa belongs, and where he could split the vote.
Yeddyurappa is an additional thorn to BJP, which is going to the May 5 hustings burdened by anti-incumbency, rampant corruption and lacklustre administration. In the recent urban local-body elections, KJP could win only 274 of the 4,967 wards, though BJP's miserable performance (906 wards, in contrast to the Congress's 1,960) was attributed partly to KJP.
So the best that Yeddyurappa can now wish for is a hung assembly, where he could swing the balance with a few seats. Says Narendar Pani, professor at the School of Social Sciences, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore: "His main effort is to ruin the chances of BJP. He has been pitting his strongest candidates against BJP." Yeddyurappa might have had bigger ambitions, but for loyalists such as Murugesh Nirani, Basavaraj Bommai and Umesh Katti choosing to remain with BJP.
Yeddyurappa launched his party in December last year after months of threatening to do so. The former chief minister had been forced to step down in 2011 after the Lokayukta indicted him in its report on illegal mining in the state. With BJP attacking the UPA over corruption at the Xentre, it could hardly afford to be seen supporting a chief minister facing similar charges. Later the same year, Yeddyurappa had to face the ignominy of being the first chief minister of Karnataka to be sent into judicial custody, on charges of having denotified land for the financial benefit of his family. Since they could not throw aside the man credited with having built up the party in the state almost single-handedly, BJP replaced him with his choice as successor, DV Sadananda Gowda.
The mill-worker from Shikaripura, the constituency from which he has been elected six times, had swept to power in 2008 on a sympathy wave after being denied his turn as chief minister despite a power-sharing agreement the Janata Dal (S). According to Pani, Yeddyurappa's strength lay in broadening the base of the party and building a coalition with people who did not necessarily subscribe to BJP's core Hindutva ideology.
Interestingly, tempestuous BJP leader Uma Bharti suggested during campaigning that Yeddyurappa be brought back to the party. BSY has ruled this out for the moment but depending on what the ballot boxes reveal on May 8, there is no predicting how things could shape up. As the cliche goes, there are no permanent enemies in politics.
