A week before the start of the four-day fourth ministerial conference of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) at Doha, there seems to be no consensus on the declaration to be adopted.
Japan is still unwilling to negotiate anything on agriculture. US is not ready to yield ground on anti-dumping and countervailing measures. EU is adamant on launch of a new round of negotiations.
African countries have problems coping with existing commitments. India is resolute that the implementation issues must be addressed up-front before taking up any new issues. Even as frantic efforts are underway to prevent failure of the talks at Doha, the alternatives are being given a serious thought.
The United States has its game plan ready. "If the WTO falters, it will turn to regional or country-by-country negotiations. "Given the size and innovation of the US economy," US trade representative Robert Zoellick said, "we can be an attractive partner for others who seek to liberalise trade." That seems to be the game plan for European Union and Japan too. India does not seem to have any such strategy.
India's geography, insignificant share in world trade and perceptions abroad about of it being an unstable sub-continent do not make the country a natural or attractive member in any major trading block or a very attractive investment destination.
The country's commerce minister, has talked of the option to withdraw from the WTO. It is a bit ironical that just when the ministerial conference is all set to vote for China's admission to WTO, India is talking of withdrawing from the WTO.
Indeed, India need not rule out the possibility that an option to stay in or opt out of WTO might even be forced on it. Article IX (1) of the Agreement establishing WTO says, "The WTO shall continue the practice of decision-making by consensus, followed by GATT 1947. Except as otherwise provided, where a decisions can not be arrived at by consensus, the matter at issue shall be decided by voting". Also, "Decision of the ministerial conference and the general council shall be taken by a majority of the votes cast, unless otherwise provided".
The second draft ministerial declaration talks of 'opt-in and opt-out' in respect of competition policy and investment issues. There is also the possibility that in the absence of a consensus, plurilateral agreements will be pushed through that will rope in only those who want to be a parties to such agreements.
The hard truth is that over 40 per cent of our trade is with the EU and US. Other countries such as Australia, Canada, Singapore, Japan, which account for another about 40 per cent of the country's trade, are in favour of a new round. Those nations which agree with India's 'no new round' trade are very few. For the least developing countries, the 'quota-free, duty-free access' to developed countries means a lot more than supporting us on stopping a new round.
Talk of withdrawal from WTO might go down well with hardcore constituency of some parties in the ruling coalition. The reality is that with 0.6 per cent of the world trade, if India falls off the world trade map, the world is unlikely to notice it. Precise assessment of our strengths is very critical. As cricketer Sunil Gavaskar says frequently, "You must learn to play within your limitations."
