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In the first quarter of this financial year, growth in India’s agriculture sector dropped 0.2 percentage points to 2.7 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year, as a fall in wheat production pulled down overall foodgrain output, too.
However, experts believe there could be a smart recovery in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2013-14, as a bumper harvest is expected this kharif season. “The first quarter of any financial year is usually lean for agriculture, as the previous year’s rabi output is available in the market. The real impact of good rains and a surge in acreage this year would be felt from the second quarter,” Ramesh Chand, director of National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research told Business Standard.
He added the first-quarter growth data for agriculture, forestry and fishing had been lower than in the corresponding period last year due to a fall in the production of wheat.
According to the Department of Agriculture’s fourth advanced estimate, in 2012-13, wheat production was estimated to have stood at 92.46 million tonnes (mt), a fall of 2.5 per cent compared to 2011-12. During the same period, overall foodgrain production dropped from 128.01 mt to 127.16 mt.
In the second, third and fourth quarters of this financial year, kharif and rabi harvests are expected to rise to record levels, owing to a good monsoon. Latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) showed between June 1 and August 30, rains were 11 per cent more than normal.
“If rains maintain the same intensity, there is a possibility overall showers this year could be more than 100 per cent of the long-period average (LPA),” said a senior IMD official. LPA is the average rainfall in the last 50 years (89 cm). Rains in the range of 96 per cent and 104 per cent of LPA are considered normal.
“I am very sure given the good rains this year and the rise in acreage, India is on track to recording five-six per cent agriculture growth this financial year,” Chand said.
As of Friday, India’s kharif acreage stood at 100.38 million hectares, 6.8 per cent more than a year earlier.
