GVA must expand at 6.9% in Q4 to meet CSO's FY18 projection of 6.4%

Public spending key to achieving projection; problem areas: only 82% of non-interest revenue expenditure incurred, gap in GST mop up may affect further spending

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has upped its forecast for gross value added (GVA) to 6.4 per cent in 2017-18 from 6.1 per cent.
 
Quarterly estimates showed that GVA grew at 6.7 per cent in the December quarter (Q3). This means the economy will have to expand at 6.9 per cent in Q4 to meet the CSO’s projection.
 
A closer look at the numbers reveals that government spending is likely to do the heavy lifting in Q4. Working backwards from the CSO’s estimate, it can be deduced that public administration, defence and other services, which largely connotes government