How 13 NDA-ruled states could help an early GST rollout

Assuming all 13 ratify constitution amendment Bill, BJP and allies will need just two more states to make it a law

A more likely deadline for the rollout of the Goods and Services Tax looks to be mid-fiscal of 2017 -– October 1. However, there is hope, although extremely slim, that GST can be rolled out by April of next year.

Such a feat would require a favourable interplay of the schedules of the winter sessions of Parliament and 29 state legislatures. Fifteen of these legislatures need to ratify the GST Constitution amendment for it to get Presidential assent and become a law. In this, it is a significant source of strength for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), that it rules, along with its allies, as many as 13 states (see chart)
 

Most states have either completed or in the process of completing the monsoon sessions of their respective state assemblies. They can now only take up the constitutional amendment Bill in their respective winter sessions. But the schedule for the Parliament sessions or state assembly sessions are not cast in stone. These can be advanced or delayed on the pleasure of the respective governments.

Total states: 29*
At least half, that is 15, state legislatures need to ratify a constitutional amendment

Those run by BJP or/and its allies: 13
Jammu and Kashmir (PDP+BJP), Punjab (SAD+BJP), Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra (BJP+SS), Goa, Andhra Pradesh (TDP), Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Jharkhand and Nagaland (NPF) **

States with non-BJP, non-Congress governments: 9

Odisha (BJD), West Bengal (Trinamool), Tamil Nadu (AIADMK), Bihar (JDU +), Uttar Pradesh (Samajwadi Party), Telangana (Telangana Rashtra Samithi), Tripura and Kerala (Left Front), Sikkim (Sikkim Democratic Front) States with Congress governments: 7
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram Notes: *Delhi and Puducherry have legislative Assemblies, but are considered union territories; **Nagaland has a coalition government led by Naga People’s Front (NPF), of which BJP, with four MLAs, is a partner. NPF, and its MP Neiphiu Rio, is an ally of NDA at the Centre; *** Elections are due by February-March in five states: BJP ruled Goa, SAD (+BJP ruled) Punjab, Congress ruled Uttarakhand and Manipur and

Parliament and state legislatures hold a minimum of three sessions a year. “The terms ‘monsoon’ or ‘winter’ sessions have been given by us for convenience. They do not find mention in the Constitution,” constitutional expert Subhash C Kashyap says.

Kashyap, a former secretary-general of the Lok Sabha, says the governor summons the state legislature on the advice of the chief minister and the state Cabinet, with only one rule determining the time of an Assembly session that “six months shall not intervene between its last sitting in one session and the date appointed for its first sitting in the next session”.

So, at least hypothetically, the state governments keen to have the tax reform can advance their winter sessions to ratify the constitutional amendment. This would enable the union government to take up subsequent GST related bills in the winter session of Parliament. The winter session of Parliament usually begins in the third week of November.

In this complex interplay of scheduling of sessions of Parliament and legislative Assemblies, the Modi government will find it to its advantage that as many as 13 states are ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or its allies. The BJP-led union government can suggest to state governments ruled by BJP or its allies, as also to sympathetic governments in Telangana and Sikkim, to ratify the constitution amendment before Parliament meets for its winter session in end-November.

Read our full coverage on the GST Bill and its impact

But much would still need to be accomplished after that for the GST to be rolled out by either April or October. After the constitutional amendment Bill is passed and the GST Council is constituted, Parliament will have to pass a central GST Bill and a model GST Bill, while all state legislatures will need to pass state-specific GST Bills and send it to the President for assent.

This will imply state legislatures passing their respective GST Bills in their budget sessions by early next year, which could have a bearing on the eventual rollout.