In Punjab, future of paddy and wheat no more green

Primary sector's contribution to GSDP is declining, that of secondary & tertiary increasing

Punjab—the pioneer of Green Revolution—is facing stagnancy in agricultural growth. According to an economic survey, the share of primary sector in the gross state domestic product (GSDP) is constantly decreasing in the state while that of secondary as well as tertiary sector is increasing. Survey shows the growth in primary sector has been tardy, due to near saturation in production of wheat and paddy in the absence of technological break through.

The share of agriculture (proper) in GSDP at constant prices has declined from 21.19 per cent in 2004-05 to 15.47 (quick estimates) in 2010-11. Also, the share of primary sector which includes agriculture and livestock has also come down from 32.67 per cent in 2004-05 to 24.14 per cent (quick estimates) in 2010-11 while that of secondary and tertiary sector is increasing, shows the survey.

 

The agricultural production in the state has reached a plateau. The growth of the primary sector in Punjab is lower when compared to the natioanl level which proves there is little scope for further growth in this sector, but, the rural population, which comprises about 62.51 per cent of the total population is still dependent on farm living.

According to economists, Punjab’s agriculture was structured to produce food (particularly wheat and rice) in response to national requirement which resulted in over use of natural resources. Further, domination of wheat-paddy in foodgrains, stagnating productivity, in the absence of breakthrough in new high yielding varieties, strains on marketing infrastructure, dwindling ground water resources, decline in profitability etc.are the reasons behind the problem which require immediate attention.

Further, they suggested that the state has to respond to the global mandate to be competitive. A concrete programme of diversification and raising value addition in each agro-climate region of Punjab depending on the health of soil and water availability has to be developed. It is worth noting that according to the state government data, at constant prices 2004-05, the GSDP from primary sector, which comprises mainly of agriculture and livestock activities, has decreased from Rs 34,805 crore(revised) in 2008-09 to Rs 34,694 crore(Projected) during 2009-10 registering a growth rate of (-) 0.32 per cent(projected) as compared to 2.05 per cent (revised) in 2008-09. According to quick estimates, it increased to Rs 35,740 crore in 2010-11 showing a growth rate of 3.01 per cent.

On the contrary the share of secondary sector has increased from 24.74 per cent in 2004-05 to 30.88 (quick estimates) in 2010-11. Also, the share of tertiary sector which comprises of services sector has increased from 42.59 per cent in 2004-05 to 44.98 per cent (quick estimates) in 2010-11.

This growth is mainly due to increase in contribution of transport, storage, communication, banking & insurance sector.