India wants a V-shaped recovery at any cost. But what will RBI do?

How RBI manages recovery demand against threats to financial stability from cheap money may be a more important story for India investors in 2021 than the standard growth versus inflation trade-off

A collapse in imports during the coronavirus lockdown has left India awash with dollars. Now a further influx of greenbacks is expected as an embryonic economic recovery draws investors back. To banks, this means one thing: The local currency is a sitting duck for appreciation against a weakening dollar.

Policy makers won’t want a stronger rupee to become a one-way bet, but the market doesn’t believe them to have many other options. What the authorities have done so far — scoop up the dollars by giving banks rupees — has left the financial system swimming in money and threatens to fuel