As July draws close, the progress of the southwest monsoon across the Indian mainland over the next two weeks would be closely tracked.
Experts said the sowing, and the subsequent production, of major kharif crops like paddy, soybean, groundnut and pulses would depend on how the rains fare in the next 10-15 days. Typically, July is most critical of the four-month southwest monsoon period. However, given rains have been delayed by almost 10 days in most parts of the country, the next few days hold the key.
Officially, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has expressed hope rains would be revived in the coming weeks, reaching the main paddy-growing belt of eastern India by June 22.
“The progress of the southwest monsoon in the next 10-15 days would be keenly watched. As of now, it does not make much of a difference. But if the situation does not improve in the next few days, contingency plans need to be put in place,” said P K Joshi, director (south Asia), International Food Policy Research Institute.
Concurring, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Care Ratings, said sowing would be delayed this year. However, how far this would impact farm output was unclear as of now, he said. “If the rains do not progress satisfactorily till the end of June, there could be serious trouble,” he added.
So far, rainfall in the first two weeks of the monsoon season has been about 42 per cent less than normal.
Though ideally, by mid-June, the southwest monsoon should have covered entire Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, central Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, till Friday, it had barely crossed Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in the south and Assam in the east.
“June rains do not matter much, as July is the most crucial month for sowing of kharif crops. In the past, too, June rains were bad. But these were compensated by July showers. What happens in July would shape the agricultural production scenario this year and given predictions of the El Niño, we need to keep our fingers crossed,” said D K Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL.
Vedika Narvekar, senior research analyst (agriculture commodities) at Angel Com-modities, said, “In Mahara-shtra, sowing of soybean has started in irrigated areas like the Sangli region. But in rain-fed areas, it hasn’t. This is because the monsoon, which usually arrives around June 7, is yet to hit these areas. If it does not arrive in full strength in the coming week or 10 days, sowing would delayed, which in turn, could push up prices.”
