Recovery tracker: Retail, recreation visits hit pre-lockdown levels

Power generation also registers a surge; 20% higher than in 2019

More people are stepping out for shopping and recreation than at any point since March 2020, when the pandemic forced a lockdown.
 
The drop in retail and recreation visits relative to pre-Covid levels has narrowed to 16.7 per cent. It was 16.3 per cent on March 21, 2020, three days before the government had announced a national lockdown (see chart 1). The numbers are from search engine Google, which tracks people’s movements using anonymised location data. This data is released with a lag and the latest is as of August 11.
 
Power demand continues to grow since Covid-19 lockdowns ended in most parts of the country. Last week, electricity generation in India was at its highest in two years — up around 20 per cent over the same week in 2019. The surge in power demand is attributed to the rise in industrial activity and normalisation of retail and recreation hours in major cities (see chart 2).
 
The Indian Railways provides weekly freight data. A year-on-year comparison is also provided. It shows that trains carried more goods in the seven days ending Sunday, August 15, than during the same period in 2020. The quantity of goods carried was up 14.2 per cent. The money Railways made from freight rose 14.7 per cent (see chart 3).

Business Standard also tracks emissions of nitrogen dioxide, a pollutant that comes from industrial activity and vehicles. These levels are seen to be indicative of economic activity. Delhi emissions are now at pre-Covid levels, while Mumbai emissions, based on Bandra locality data, are down 40 per cent (see charts 4, 5).

Traffic congestion, meanwhile, is up from its lows in May. It is now down 27 per cent in both Mumbai and New Delhi, based on numbers from global location technology firm TomTom International. Congestion was down over 80 per cent in both cities at the lowest point this year as cases rose during the second Covid wave a few months ago.

Compared to last week, however, New Delhi traffic congestion has shown a decline, while Mumbai has held steady (see chart 6).
 
Business Standard tracks these indicators as a means of getting a clearer picture of how the economy is performing amid the pandemic.

Official macroeconomic data is often released with a lag. Analysts globally have been tracking similar indicators to get a sense of how countries are coping with pandemic-related lockdowns. All data, except Google, is as of Sunday, August 15.