No recovery in global jobs market from pandemic until at least 2023: ILO

Global unemployment rate seen at 6.3% this year, 5.7% in 2022; uneven stimulus, vaccine access foster inequalities, says ILO

At least 220 million people are expected to remain unemployed globally this year, well above pre-pandemic levels, with a weak labour market recovery exacerbating existing inequalities, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said on Wednesday.
 
The United Nations agency forecast the outlook improving to 205 million unemployed next year — still well above the 187 million recorded in 2019 before the coronavirus crisis wreaked havoc.
 
According to ILO models, that equates to a global unemployment rate of 6.3 per cent this year, falling to 5.7 per cent next year but still up on the pre-pandemic rate of 5.4 per cent in 2019.
 
“Employment growth will be insufficient to make up for the losses suffered until at least 2023,” the ILO said in a report, World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2021.
 
Stefan Kuehn, ILO economist and lead author of the report, told Reuters that the true impact on the labour market was even greater when reduced working hours imposed on many workers and other factors were accounted for.
 
All told, it estimated that working hours losses in 2020 relative to 2019 amounted to the equivalent of 144 million full-time jobs in 2020, a shortfall that still stood at 127 million in the second quarter of this year.
 
“Unemployment does not capture the impact on the labour market,” Kuehn said, noting that whereas hiring in the United States had resumed after massive job losses, many workers elsewhere, particularly in Europe, remained on reduced-hours schemes.
 
Women, young people and the 2 billion people working in informal sectors have been hardest hit, with 108 million more workers worldwide now categorised as poor or extremely poor compared to 2019, it said.

 
The Geneva-based body’s prediction is the latest evidence that the pandemic has reversed years of progressive gains to welfare around the world.
 
“Five years of progress towards the eradication of working poverty have been undone,” the report said.
 
Not only has unemployment risen in many countries despite furlough programs to help firms retain staff, but the headline rate masks the extent of the damage. Many people, particularly women and the young, have left the labour market and aren’t being counted.
 
In addition, schooling has been disrupted in many places due to the need to stem spread of the disease.
 
The ILO estimated that those jobs that are created are likely to be lower quality, with the problem most severe in poorer countries with large informal economies.
 
“The crisis is likely to aggravate inequality within and between countries for years to come,” the ILO said.
 
“It poses the risk of creating an additional dimension of economic and social scarring at the international level that will manifest itself in slower and more uneven progress toward poverty reduction.”