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Rise of about 30% expected in castor oil export this year

1.5 mn tonne castor seed required to meet demand, lower crop size may create shortage

Dilip Kumar Jha  |  Mumbai 

India’s exports are likely to rise this year by a third, on rising demand from America, China and the European Union (EU), its three largest importers. Because of an unusually weak demand trend, our export fell last year to 429,000 tonnes from 460,000 tonnes in 2012-13.

“This year, we are looking for exports to hit 570,000 tonnes at least, due to robust demand from developed countries,” said Kanubhai Thakkar, managing director of Gokul Refoils & Solvent, one of the largest exporters of

Castor oil and its derivatives find uses in agriculture, cosmetics, electronics & telecommunications, food, lubricants, paints, inks and adhesives, paper, perfumeries, pharmaceuticals, plastics and rubber, and textile chemicals.

Rising demand could affect availability in the Indian market due to shortage of output. India produces around 85 per cent of global castor oil. China has reportedly covered 85 per cent of its annual need of 180,000 tonnes so far. Europe and the US had also bought an estimated 85 per cent of their need of 120,000 and 60,000 tonnes by February. New season buying has also started in full swing. Demand from China, the US and EU are unlikely to pick up as they wait for arrival of the new crop and for rates to fall further. However, that from other countries is set to rise in the coming months.

Amid fear of supply shortage next year, demand from perennial buyers might also go up, said Thakkar who estimates the seed crop this year at a million tonnes. A survey by Religare Commodities says India’s output would decline 11 per cent this year to 1.2 mt, as compared to 1.35 mt last year. Sowing was lower this year by 10 per cent at 0.98 mn hectares as compared to 1.09 mn ha last year.

“Given that unseasonal rain and hail hit the standing crop, total output would not surpass one mt. Thus, there will be an acute shortage of seed in the lean season when demand rises, post June,” said Thakkar.

Hyderabad–based Trans-graph Consulting, in a separate survey, forecast India’s output at 1.04 mt, due to low crop germination on extremely high temperature.

At an oil extraction rate of 46 per cent, total seed requirement is around 1.5 mt. Assuming carryover stocks at 400,000 tonnes, demand will nullify surplus availability towards the current year-end.

Castor prices have been under pressure for several months. According to Thakkar, farmers should fetch at least Rs 4,000-4,500 a quintal to re-sow. Any realisation below that is a loss for them. for delivery in April is trading currently at Rs 3,690 a qtl, a marginal decline of one per cent so far this month. In the spot market, the seed is selling at Rs 3,565 a qtl in Gujarat mandis. The oil is quoted at Rs 74,500 a tonne.

Abhay Udeshi, chairman of SEA Castor Seed & Oil Council, projects the castor crop potential at 2.9 mt (equivalent to 1.3 mt of oil) by 2025.

First Published: Sat, March 28 2015. 21:20 IST