India’s total foodgrains production is expected to fall by around 10% in 2012-13 crop marketing year that started from June to 117.18 million tonne as compared to the last year, because of uneven rains in some parts of the country.
This could have a serious impact on prices of edible oil and pulses, the two commodities which are mainly dependent on imports, experts said.
According to the first official estimate for 2012-2013 kharif production released today, the biggest drop has been in production of paddy and coarse cereals. Production of paddy is projected to fall by 6.48% to 85.59 million tonne, while output of coarse cereals is estimated to fall by 18.38% to 26.33%.
Production of pulses during the kharif season is estimated to drop by almost 15% to 5.26 million tonne, while the production of oilseeds is estimated to fall by around 10% to 18.78 million tonne.
The data showed that cotton production is projected to fall by 5.34% to 33.40 million bales and sugarcane output is projected to drop by 6.2% to 335.33 million tonne. Experts said the biggest cause of concern would be the drop in output of pulses and oilseeds to some extent as their import dependency will increase.
India annually imports more than half of its edible oil demand, while import of pulses hovers between 1.5 to 2 million tonne. Kharif sowing, started in June, is almost complete and harvest will start from early next month.
The southwest monsoon which provides almost 70% of total moisture needed for the country has had a rather uneven run in 2012.
From a shortfall of almost 20% during the first two months of the season, the rainfall at present is just 5% below normal. The initial deficiency lead to drought-like conditions in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have declared drought in over 390 taluks.
