Nifty 10,275 a critical support level; short-term trend is hard to judge

The rupee has lost quite a bit of ground since pre-Budget, against three major hard currencies (yen, dollar, and euro)

The market appears to be stuck inside a narrow trading zone and the background signals are a little negative. The Nifty has been unable to break out above 10,600. But it has managed to stay above a key support 10,275. Any move that closes outside this 10,300-10,600 zone is likely to result in a further three per cent swing, till either 10,000 or till 10,900. 

The short-term trend is hard to judge. Breakouts could come in either direction since this is a very narrow range. However, the VIX has climbed , which could indicate fear. Breadth is negative in the