Pulses, wheat to give festive blues

Export ban and duty-free imports fail to check prices

With the festive season about to begin, prices of essential commodities "" particularly chana, urad and wheat "" are set to rise on account of shrinking supplies.

The government has done everything: from banning export of pulses and sugar to allowing duty free import of pulses, sugar and wheat. However, apart from sugar none of these commodities have seen any impact of these measures.

Prices of some of these commodities in the futures market have jumped by as high as 25 per cent instead of seeing a decline over the last four months.

At the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (Ncdex), the price of Urad for July delivery was Rs 2,846 a quintal on June 1.

At present urad for October delivery is trading at Rs 3709. On June 1, chana for July delivery was trading at Rs 2551 a quintal and at present, chana for October delivery is trading at Rs 3196.

The price of wheat for July delivery (on June 1) was Rs 905 a quintal, while wheat for October delivery is now trading at Rs 974.

Only sugar has seen a fall. On June 1, M grade sugar for July delivery was at Rs 1976 a quintal and now sugar for October delivery is trading at Rs 1844.

Even spot prices of these commodities have seen a rise of up to 30 per cent. At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), chana touched a high of Rs 3,150 a quintal from Rs 2,382 on June 1.

Spot urad has also increased to Rs 3,996 a quintal from Rs 3027 over the same period. Wheat spot has increased from Rs 855 a quintal to Rs 996. However, sugar fell to Rs 1885 a quintal from Rs 1989.

"According to our trade sources, we are left with chana stock that would last for another one and a half months. Chana can be imported only by December from Australia as their crop would come by November. The price could cross Rs 3,500 a quintal by October end. The spot rate of urad at major producing centres such as Akola and Jalgaon is quoting at Rs 40 a kg. This is owing to a shortage in supply and the price may go up to Rs 3,800 a quintal", said an analyst with Kotak Commodities.

Pulses traders see both urad and chana reaching a high of Rs 4000 a quintal in another month. Wheat is also expected to go up to Rs 1,000 in October on account of festive demand.

While the government has contracted 55 lakh tonne wheat thus far, private traders have managed to contract only 7 lakh tonne. Internationally, the price of wheat has also seen an increase. The landed price of imported wheat would now be as high as Rs 11500 a tonne.