Key benchmark indices extended losses in early afternoon trade after the latest data showed the rate of inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated in March 2014. The market breadth, indicating health of the market was negative. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, was down 207.45 points or 0.92%, off close to 315 points from the day's high. The market sentiment was also hit adversely after data released by the government after trading hours on Friday, 11 April 2014, showed that India's industrial production witnessed a surprise contraction in February 2014 as manufacturing activity shrunk. That data came after another data released during trading hours on Friday, 11 April 2014, showed that India's merchandise exports declined for the second month in a row in March 2014. Weakness in emerging-market stocks also weighed on sentiment on Indian bourses.
Bank stocks declined after the latest data showed the rate of inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated in March 2014.
A bout of volatility was witnessed as key benchmark indices slipped into the red after opening higher. The Sensex languished in negative terrain in morning trade. Weakness continued on bourses in mid-morning trade. Key benchmark indices extended losses in early afternoon trade after the latest data showed the rate of inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated in March 2014.
The market sentiment was affected adversely by data showing that foreign funds turned net sellers of Indian stocks on Friday, 11 April 2014. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 362.29 crore on Friday, 11 April 2014, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. The stock market was closed on Monday, 14 April 2014, on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
Emerging-market shares dropped today, 15 April 2014, as the slowest Chinese money supply growth in almost 13 years tempered optimism from improving US economic data.
At 12:20 IST, the S&P BSE Sensex was down 207.45 points or 0.92% to 22,421.51. The index declined 209.45 points at the day's low of 22,419.51 in early trade, its lowest level since 9 April 2014. The index jumped 108.35 points at the day's high of 22,737.31 in early trade, its highest level since 10 April 2014.
The CNX Nifty was down 55.85 points or 0.82% to 6,720.45. The index hit a low of 6,711.75 in intraday trade, its lowest level since 9 April 2014. The index hit a high of 6,813.40 in intraday trade, its highest level since 10 April 2014.
The BSE Mid-Cap index was off 16.20 points or 0.22% at 7,322.26. The BSE Small-Cap index was down 7.36 points or 0.1% at 7,506.50. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was negative. On BSE, 1,161 shares dropped and 1,109 shares rose. A total of 129 shares were unchanged.
Bank stocks declined after the latest data showed the rate of inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated in March 2014. Among private sector banks, ICICI Bank (down 0.21%), Axis Bank (down 0.96%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 1.87%), and HDFC Bank (down 1.4%) declined. IndusInd Bank rose 0.8%.
Among state-run banks, Bank of India (down 1.79%), Canara Bank (down 0.44%), Punjab National Bank (down 0.55%) and Bank of Baroda (down 1.4%) edged lower. Union Bank of India rose 0.45%.
State Bank of India (SBI) shed 0.31%. The state-run bank after market hours on Friday, 11 April 2014, said that it has priced on 10 April 2014 and will issue $1.25 billion unsecured fixed rate notes in two tranches of $750 million having a maturity of 5 years at a coupon of 3.622% payable semi-annually and $500 million having a maturity of 10 years at a coupon of 4.875% payable semi-annually, pursuant to a standalone issue under Rule 144A/Regulation S of the US Securities Act of 1933. The notes will be issued through the London branch of SBI and shall be listed on Singapore Stock Exchange Securities Trading, SBI said.
Last week, a committee set up by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on credit pricing framework suggested that commercial banks, particularly those whose weighted average maturity of deposits is on the lower side, move towards computing the Base Rate on the basis of marginal cost of funds. This may result in more transparency in pricing, reduced customer complaints, better transmission of changes in the policy rate and improved asset liability management at banks, a draft report of the committee on 'Working Group on Pricing of Credit', said on 10 April 2014. If banks use weighted average cost of funds because of their deposits profile or any other methodology that may result in differentiation between old and new customers, the boards of banks should ensure that this differentiation does not lead to any discrimination amongst borrowers, the draft report said.
Apart from factors like specific operating cost, credit risk premium and tenor premium, broad factors, such as, competition, business strategy and customer relationship are also used to determine the spread. The RBI committee suggested that bank should have a board approved policy delineating these components. The board of a bank should ensure that any price differentiation is consistent with the bank's credit pricing policy factoring Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC). Banks should be able to demonstrate to the Reserve Bank of India the rationale of the pricing policy, the draft report of the committee stated. Banks' internal policy must spell out the rationale for, and range of, the spread in the case of a given borrower, as also, the delegation of powers in respect of loan pricing, the draft report said.
The spread charged to an existing customer cannot be increased except on account of deterioration in the credit risk profile of the customer, the committee said. The customer should be informed of this at the time of contract. Further, this information should be adequately displayed by banks through notices/website, the committee said in its draft report.
The floating rate loan covenant may have interest rate reset periodicity and the resets may be done on those dates only, irrespective of changes made to the Base Rate within the reset period, the committee said. There may be a sunset clause for Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) contracts so that all the contracts thereafter are linked to the Base Rate. Banks may ensure that these customers who shift from BPLR linked loans to Base Rate loans are not charged any additional interest rate or any processing fee for such switch-over, the draft report stated.
The IBA may develop a new benchmark for floating interest rate products, namely, the Indian Banks Base Rate (IBBR), which may be collated and published by IBA on a periodic basis. Banks may consider offering floating rate products linked to the Base Rate, IBBR or any other floating rate benchmark ensuring that at the time of sanction, the lending rates should be equal to or above the Base Rate of bank. To begin with, IBBR may be used for home loans. By design, the IBBR should meet the standards for benchmarks set by the Committee on Financial Benchmarks. The Working Group has also made several recommendations to bring in greater transparency enabling comparability across banks and informed decision making by customers.
The benefit of interest reduction on the principal on account of pre-payments should be given on the day the money is received by the bank without waiting for the next EMI cycle date to effect the credit, the draft report said. For retail loans, the customers should have a choice of "with exit" and "sans exit" options at the time of entering the contract. The exit option can be priced differentially but reasonably. The exit option should be easily exercisable by the customer with minimum notice period and without impediments. This would address issues of borrowers being locked into contracts, serve as a consumer protection measure and also help enhance competition. Further, IBA should evolve a set of guidelines for easier and quicker transfer of loans, particularly mortgage/housing loans. There could also be penalties for banks which do not cooperate with borrowers in this regard.
Despite the policy efforts to usher in transparency and fairness to the credit pricing framework, there have been certain concerns from the customer service perspective, the RBI said. These mainly relate to the downward stickiness of the interest rates, discriminatory treatment of old borrowers vis-vis new borrowers, and arbitrary changes in spreads, etc. The mandate of the RBI's 'Working Group on Pricing of Credit' is to examine the issues related to discrimination in pricing of credit and recommend measures for transparent and appropriate pricing of credit under a floating rate regime.
Tata Steel fell 0.98%. Tata Steel said on Monday, 14 April 2014, that the company has completed FY 2014 (year ended 31 March 2014) with an overall increase in production and sales volumes. The year registered its best ever performance in hot metal, crude steel, saleable steel production and total sales, the company said. Tata Steel said that its total sales rose 6% to 24.07 lakh tonnes in Q4 March 2014 over Q4 March 2013. Total sales rose 14% to 85.16 lakh tonnes in the year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014) over the year ended 31 March 2013 (FY 2013).
Infosys gained 1.89% to Rs 3,296.85 after the company before trading hours today, 15 April 2014, said its consolidated net profit rose 4.1% to Rs 2992 crore on 1.2% decline in revenue to Rs 12875 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q3 December 2013. The stock was volatile. The stock hit high of Rs 3,371.80 and low of Rs 3,270.40 so far during the day. Infosys' non-operational income jumped 16.4% to Rs 851 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q3 December 2013. The results are as per International Financial Reporting Standards.
Infosys has forecast revenue growth of 7% to 9% in dollar terms for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015). The company has forecast revenue growth of 5.6% to 7.6% in rupee terms for FY 2015. The guidance in rupee terms is based on rupee dollar conversion rate of 60.
Infosys had liquid assets including cash and cash equivalents, available-for-sale financial assets, certificates of deposits and government bonds at Rs 30251 crore as on 31 March 2014, higher than Rs 27440 crore as on 31 December 2013.
Infosys said that the company's current policy is to pay dividends up to 30% of post-tax profits. The board has decided to increase the dividend pay-out ratio to up to 40% of post-tax profits with effect from FY 2014. The board of directors recommended a final dividend of Rs 43 per share for FY 2014.
Infosys and its subsidiaries added 50 clients in Q4 March 2014 and 238 clients in FY 2014.
There was gross addition of 10,997 employees during the quarter and 39,985 during the year by Infosys and its subsidiaries.
Commenting on the company's financial performance, S. D. Shibulal, CEO and Managing Director, Infosys said: "I am pleased that we have been able to double our growth rate for the full year compared to last year, though performance in the last quarter of FY 2014 has been disappointing. We have guided for a revenue growth of 7%-9% next year and remain firmly focused on building the growth momentum by making all the necessary investments in our business".
Rajiv Bansal, Chief Financial Officer, Infosys said: "Our cash and cash equivalents crossed Rs 30000 crore during the quarter. We have increased the dividend payout ratio to up to 40% of post-tax profits effective FY 2014 to enhance returns for our shareholders".
Gruh Finance rose 7.76% after the company's net profit rose 16.71% to Rs 73.60 crore on 31% growth in total income to Rs 254.42 crore in Q4 March 2014 over Q4 March 2013. The result was announced after market hours on Friday, 11 April 2014.
Gruh Finance's net profit surged 21.3% to Rs 176.96 crore on 30.08% growth in total income to Rs 846.16 crore in the year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014) over the year ended 31 March 2013 (FY 2013).
Revenue from operations for Q4 March 2014 includes write back of excess provision of Rs 19.22 crore made in the earlier quarters of the year as against Rs 14.94 crore written back in the corresponding quarter in the previous year, Gruh Finance said.
The gross non-performing assets (NPAs) of the company are at Rs 18.87 crore (0.27% of the loan assets) as on 31 March 2014, as against Rs 17.64 crore (0.32% of the loan assets) as on 31 March 2013. Net NPAs of the company are Nil as on 31 March 2014, as against Rs 2.70 crore (0.05% of the loan assets) as on 31 March 2013, Gruh Finance said.
Disbursements during FY 2014 amounted to Rs 2577.47 crore as compared to Rs 2174.39 crore during FY 2013, representing a growth of 19%. Loan assets have increased from Rs 5437.80 crore as on 31 March 2013 to Rs 7009.04 crore as on 31 March 2014, registering a growth of 29%, Gruh Finance said.
Gruh Finance's board of directors at its meeting held on Friday, 11 April 2014, approved bonus issue in the ratio of 1:1 i.e. one equity share of Rs 2 each for every equity share held as on the record date to be fixed for the purpose to the shareholders of the company. The issue of bonus shares is subject to the approval of the shareholders of the company. The board also recommended dividend of Rs 3 per share for FY 2014.
In the foreign exchange market, the rupee edged lower against the dollar, tracking weakness in other Asian currencies against the dollar. The partially convertible rupee was hovering at 60.325, compared with its close of 60.175/185 on Friday, 11 April 2014. Indian financial markets were closed on Monday, 14 April 2014, on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
Indian government bond prices dropped after the latest data showed the rate of inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated in March 2014. The yield of 10-year benchmark federal paper, 8.83% GS 2023, was hovering at 9.012%, higher than its close of 8.9406% on Friday, 11 April 2014. Bond yield and bond prices move in opposite direction. Indian financial markets were closed on Monday, 14 April 2014, on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti.
The rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) accelerated to 5.7% in March 2014, from 4.68% in February 2014, data released by the government today, 15 April 2014, showed. The government revised upwards WPI inflation for January 2014 to 5.17%, from 5.05% reported on 14 February 2014. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 5.7% compared to a build up rate of 5.65% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Core inflation or non-food manufacturing inflation accelerated to a 12-month high of 3.5% in March 2014.
The rate of inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) is seen inching up to 8.2% in March 2014, from 8.1% in February 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government is scheduled to announce CPI inflation data for March 2014 at 17:00 IST today, 15 April 2014.
India's index of industrial production (IIP) dipped 1.9% in February 2014, snapping 0.8% growth recorded in the previous month. IIP recorded decline for six out of 11 months in FY 2014 till February 2014. The sharp decline in the output of manufacturing sector at 3.7% in February 2014, mainly led to dip in IIP during February 2014. Meanwhile, the output of mining sector rose 1.4%, while the electricity generation surged 11.5% in February 2014. The data was announced after market hours on Friday, 11 April 2014.
Global rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) said today, 15 April 2014, the direction and pace of policy reforms in India, more than which political party takes control after elections, will have a bearing on the sovereign rating. "An important factor is how fragmented the government will be. The more parties involved in the next coalition government, the more likely policies will be incoherent and less supportive of credit attributes," said Kim Eng Tan, sovereign credit analyst at S&P, in a statement. S&P has a BBB- rating on India with a negative outlook and has warned of the risks of a ratings downgrade in the absence of structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and if economic growth decelerates further.
Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings after trading hours on Friday, 11 April 2014, affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB-'. The issue ratings on India's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BBB-', Fitch said. The outlooks on the Long-Term IDRs are stable, the rating agency said. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'BBB-' and the Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR at 'F3', it said.
India's sovereign ratings benefit from relatively high real GDP growth: the five-year average is 6.7%, compared with the median of 3.2% for peers in the 'BBB' rating category (sovereigns rated 'BBB-', 'BBB' and 'BBB+'). However, the Indian economy has lost much of its dynamism in recent years and the average is coming down, the rating agency said. Fitch forecasts real GDP growth to rise to 5.5% in the year ended 31 March 2015 (FY 2015) and 6% in the year ended 31 March 2016 (FY 2016), from 4.7% in the year ended on 31 March 2014 (FY 2014).
The course of the Indian economy is uncertain in light of the on-going parliamentary elections, with the results due to be announced on 16 May 2014, the rating agency said. Once the next coalition starts implementing its economic policies, it will become clearer whether the economy can return to a higher sustainable growth path or whether it remains stuck at current levels, it said. A policy push that includes structural and governance reforms, fiscal consolidation and efforts to rein in inflationary pressures would likely require a coherent coalition with a strong electoral mandate, the rating agency said.
Fiscal consolidation remains critical to the rating, as both the general government budget deficit of the Centre and the States combined (7.3% of GDP) and the gross general government debt (64.7%) are much higher than 'BBB' category medians (respectively -2.5% of GDP and 40% of GDP), Fitch said. The central government seems to have met its budget deficit target of 4.8% of GDP (including privatization receipts) for FY 2014, despite the looming elections. But this was only achieved through substantial one-off measures, such as special dividends by state companies, and deferral of bill payments and capital expenditure, which raise questions about the feasibility of a fiscal consolidation process over the long run, Fitch said. Credibility of the government's fiscal policy would be strengthened through the implementation of a clear strategy to reach the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act's consolidation path towards a general government deficit of 3% of GDP by FY 2017, Fitch said.
India's standards of governance and business environment are relatively weak and constrain its investment potential. Fitch expects a gradual pick-up in investment in its baseline scenario once the election uncertainty dissipates. The clearance of close to 300 investment projects by the Cabinet Committee on Investment should facilitate investment activity. However, some of these projects may no longer be viable or may still face difficulties at the state level, Fitch said. More structural measures could cause investment to take off decisively, as illustrated by India's low score for World Bank indicators related to the ease of doing business (28.3 percentile compared with 70.7 percentile for 'BBB' peers) and governance (48.3 percentile compared with 54.6).
India's inflation is high at a five-year average of 10.2% compared with the 'BBB' peer median of 4.2%. However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) seems more determined than in the past to bring down inflation, as evidenced by recent policy rate hikes. Clarity on potentially a new monetary policy framework would likely contribute to lower inflation expectations, subsequently feeding through to lower actual inflation levels. Nonetheless, some structural factors driving inflation, including inefficiencies in food distribution, are in the realm of the government rather than the RBI, Fitch said.
The rating agency said that India's external position continues to be strong, given the high level of foreign exchange reserves of $304 billion or 6.1 months of current account receipts cover (compared with the 'BBB' peer median of 4.8 months) and low net external debt of 4.4% of GDP (compared with a 9.2% 'BBB' peer median). This provides a thick cushion in case of renewed pressures on the rupee and other asset markets. The authorities reacted effectively to the market jitters in 2013 related to the expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve tapering its stimulus, helping lower the current account deficit from 4.8% of GDP in FY 2013 to an expected 1.9% of GDP in FY 2014, Fitch said.
In a number of respects the Indian economy is less developed than investment grade peers, Fitch said. India's average per capita income remains low at $1,543 in 2013 compared with the 'BBB' range median of $10,778. The UN Human Development Index indicates relatively low basic human development.
The profitability and capital position of the banking sector will likely remain under pressure, especially for public sector banks, as asset quality continues to deteriorate in the context of a weak macro environment, Fitch said. Non-performing loans increased to 4.2% of total assets in September 2013. Nonetheless, Fitch does not view banks' balance sheets as a material risk to the public finances at this stage, the rating agency said.
Since the rating outlook is stable, Fitch does not currently anticipate developments with a high likelihood of leading to a rating change. However, future developments that could individually or collectively, result in negative rating action include deviation from the fiscal consolidation path in such a way that it results in continuation of large general government budget deficits, a prolonged period of disappointing real GDP growth, a loose macro policy setting that would cause inflationary pressures to persist and/or the current account to widen to such an extent that it would lead to external funding stress, greater-than-expected deterioration in the banking sector's asset quality that would prompt large-scale financial support from the sovereign, Fitch said.
Future developments that could individually or collectively result in positive rating action include sustained fiscal consolidation or fiscal reforms which lead to a sharp decline in the ratio of gross general government debt to GDP, new reform momentum with the implementation of far-reaching reforms that raise the potential growth rate, establishing a credible low inflation environment, Fitch said.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) next undertakes monetary policy review on 3 June 2014. The RBI left its main lending rate viz. the repo rate unchanged at 8% after a monetary policy review on 1 April 2014, as consumer-price inflation eased to a two-year low and as the rupee firmed up against the dollar.
A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The 36 days long voting process began on 7 April 2014 and will conclude on 12 May 2014. The results will be declared on 16 May 2014 after which India will get a new government. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on 1 June and the new House has to be constituted by 31 May.
Asian stocks edged higher on Tuesday, 15 April 2014, after the largest jump in US retail sales since 2012 added to optimism that the recovery in the world's biggest economy is intact. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore, Indonesia, and Taiwan were up 0.14% to 0.96%. Key benchmark indices in South Korea, Hong Kong and China were off 0.25% to 1.21%.
China's broadest measure of credit fell 19% from a year earlier in March and money supply grew at the slowest pace since 2001, data from the People's Bank of China showed today, 15 April 2014. Aggregate financing was 2.07 trillion yuan ($333 billion) from 2.55 trillion yuan a year earlier. New yuan loans were 1.05 trillion yuan. M2, China's broadest measure of money supply, rose 12.1% in March from a year earlier.
Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could advance 10 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 15 April 2014. US stocks edged higher in choppy trade on Monday, 14 April 2014, weathering a selloff at the start of the final hour, after data showed retail sales increased the most since 2012 and as Citigroup Inc. earnings unexpectedly rose.
American retailers warmed up in March as the winter chill faded -- and it wasn't just car dealers who benefited. Sales jumped a greater-than-forecast 1.1%, the biggest gain since September 2012, following a 0.7% advance in February that was more than twice as large as previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed.
The US government's deficit will fall to $492 billion this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a steeper drop than originally predicted from $680 billion in fiscal year 2013. The 2014 deficit will be 2.8% of the economy, according to CBO, almost 32% below fiscal year 2013, when it was 4.1%. The deficit will shrink again in fiscal 2015 to $469 billion, before rising to about $1 trillion in fiscal years 2022 to 2024, CBO said.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak today, 15 April 2014, as manufacturing and inflation reports are released after better-than-estimated retail sales and Citigroup Inc. earnings buoyed US stocks on Monday, 14 April 2014.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29-30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 decided after the conclusion of a monetary policy review to trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion.
US and European lawmakers are looking at how to punish Russia for its support of separatists in Ukraine. Amid the growing tensions, European officials agreed to add new names to a list of people facing sanctions following Russian President Vladimir Putin's annexation of Crimea. US President Barack Obama warned Putin of further consequences for supporting the separatists.
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