Marking the 30th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping’s clarion call for economic reform and modernisation, China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao came forward last week with his own call for political reform, declaring that it is important for China to “guarantee the people’s democratic rights and their legitimate rights and interests”. In a speech that has been widely reported across the world, Mr Wen said that China must resolve the problem of excessive concentration of power, create conditions that allow people to criticise and supervise the government and firmly punish corruption. This is not as revolutionary as the late Mao Zedong’s call to party cadres to “bombard the headquarters”. Indeed, it may not even be as historic as the 18th August 1980 speech of Comrade Deng that Mr Wen was honouring with his own call for reform. But, given the attention that the premier’s speech has received in his own country, Mr Wen’s agenda for political reform should be taken seriously.
Seen as the “soft face” of Chinese power, a liberal, modern and reform-minded leader, Mr Wen has systematically projected himself as a popular and populist leader. A man who dared to empathise with protestors at Tiananmen square in 1989, a leader who rushed to supervise disaster relief after an earthquake, a premier who held Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s hands with warmth and affection, Mr Wen has tried to deal with China’s hardliners, both within the communist party and the People’s Liberation Army. China’s English language “internationalist media” has welcomed Mr Wen’s speech quoting local commentators to suggest that “democracy would probably be promoted at the grass-roots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials”. The Global Times has observed, “Without political reform, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernisation drive might not be reached.”
Interestingly, the Global Times says, while situating Mr Wen’s speech in the context of last week’s news that China has overtaken Japan as the “world’s second-largest economy”, a consequence of Dengist economic reform and modernisation, that “the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition, including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap”. This combination of optimism and caution suggests that China’s leaders are fully aware of domestic constraints and hurdles to growth and would like to promote managed transition to a more open and liberal political arrangement. Having reaped the fruits of an open economy, they wish to now sow the seeds of a more open society.
All this should be welcomed, but nothing should be taken for granted. Sharp and sudden reversals of policy are common to China. Moreover, growing economic pressures and an increasingly wary neighbourhood, with even Asean countries worried about China’s growing power, could encourage nationalism at home and empower the hardliners. Finally, political reform cannot be simply let loose and withdrawn at will, like economic reform. No managed system can ever control the forces of freedom that political liberalisation can potentially unleash. But, if the likes of Mr Wen win, China could yet emerge as a normal nation. If not, things could get messy for China, for Asia and the world.
