Pakistan's known unknowns

India needs to brace itself for more turmoil

The truism, that in Pakistan the only certainty is uncertainty, has been proved yet again after Nawaz Sharif stepped down as prime minister last week. Mr Sharif prematurely ended a third stint after the Supreme Court disqualified him on corruption charges linked to Panama Papers revelations involving his children. With his brother and chief minister of Punjab, Shehbaz Sharif, tipped to take charge after 45 to 55 days, within which he will have to contest a by-election to the National Assembly from the seat vacated by his brother, the political situation is unlikely to change dramatically in Pakistan. Thus, the Indian security and foreign policy establishments, preoccupied with developments on the Sikkim-Bhutan border, may draw reassurance from the fact that the Sharif family and its party, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N), remains in charge. It is, however, axiomatic that these political arrangements are unlikely to enhance the cause of stability in the region, not least because the run-up to the elections, due mid-2018, will witness an escalation of the traditional political contestation between the civilian and military establishments.

The immediate impact could be an upping of the ante along the Jammu & Kashmir border, the Pakistani military technique for tapping popular anti-Indian sentiments. But the months ahead could determine the survival of Pakistan’s fragile democracy. The year 2013 saw for the first time the peaceful handover of power between civilian governments in Pakistan. Today, the PML-N has a popular mandate — it commands 189 seats in the 342-member National Assembly and brute majorities in the Punjab Provincial Assembly, the largest and most powerful of the provinces, and the J&K Assembly in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. But corruption allegations have significantly weakened Mr Sharif’s championship of the virtues of civilian government. True, his disqualification was made on somewhat weak grounds that he had not declared directorship of a UAE-based company in electoral filings, violating office-of-profit strictures (Mr Sharif claims the case did not arise as he did not receive any income from the company). But on the wider accusations of questionable realty deals involving, chiefly, his daughter and political heir Maryam, he is on weak ground.

It is worth noting that the Supreme Court has referred all cases to the National Accountability Bureau, the chief anti-corruption body, which has set up a joint investigation team. Significantly, the latter will comprise representatives of the ISI and military intelligence. Mr Sharif’s relations with the military reached a new low in recent months after a newspaper published a report claiming a rift between civilian and military leaders over fighting militancy. The army suspected Mr Sharif’s government leaked the story and tweeted its dissatisfaction with his attempts to make amends by firing a minister.
 

These ambiguities bring into play former cricketer Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which spearheaded the campaign against Mr Sharif and is known to be propped up by the ISI-military complex. The PTI has been gaining traction among middle-class Pakistanis for its anti-corruption, aam aadmi credo, a contrast to such traditional feudal powers as Mr Sharif represents. As things stand, the choices for Pakistan lie between a precarious civilian government and a resurgent military, which has been unwilling to see its influence challenged.