Shining Thailand

Weekend Ruminations

So everyone is celebrating "" more on account of the stock market than the underlying economic reality, one suspects, but who is complaining? I certainly don't want to be a party pooper. But if you think India is shining, come to Thailand.

On New Year's day, Bangkok's mainline English newspapers led with the story on their stock market beating all others in the world, including India's, in 2003.

For good measure, a day or two earlier the Bangkok Post quoted an investment banker as saying that Thailand is the "shining" (that word again) star in Asia.

And it sounds like a very familiar story: construction is booming, banks are the flavour of the season for investors, consumers are borrowing and spending like there is no tomorrow, the baht is holding its own against the dollar, unemployment is down, investment in the auto industry is climbing as Thailand seeks to become Asean's auto capital... GDP growth last year was close to 6 per cent, this new year is expected to be 8 per cent. And the prime minister talks of ruling the country for another term, indeed many more terms (he is, after all, much younger than our Vajpayee).

So what's the big deal, you will ask. Both countries are doing well, and if the Thais are celebrating, why shouldn't we? So, celebrate by all means, but let us also learn some basics from the Thais "" not just because we happen to have signed a free trade pact with them, but because Bangkok is closer than you think; and the two factors will combine to make Thailand figure ever larger on our horizon.

A flight there from Delhi takes no longer than one to Thiruvananthapuram; a flight from Chennai to Bangkok is even shorter (the two cities are more or less on the same latitude); and while there are flights already from the Thai capital to Mumbai, Kolkata and Bangalore, soon Hyderabad will be added to the list.

The air links won't be all, for plans are being drawn up for a land-cum-sea route to be opened up across Myanmar and the Andaman Sea into the Bay of Bengal and India's eastern ports, so that manufacturers in Chennai might find sourcing from Thailand easier than from Punjab, and companies in Kolkata might find it easier to sell in Bangkok than Mumbai (check the map to see who is closer to whom).

And what do we have to learn from the Thais? The infrastructure lesson, for a start: the road network, the efficient ports, the reliable power supply system, the transport hubs built through modern airports, the spread of education, the efficiency of public transport, the sweep of its telecom ambitions "" Thailand, with barely 65 million people, is already talking of a million broadband connections.

Then there are the lessons in agriculture, for rice costs less than Rs 7 per kg, so that massive quantities can be exported at a profit. There are also the lessons in open economic systems, which have helped Thailand become a manufacturing hub for everything from cars to computers, and develop an export base that is bigger than India's (though our economy is three times as large).

Businessmen have begun to wake up to the emerging rules and the possibilities for exploiting them, and delegations are going back and forth. Don't be surprised if the deals start getting announced before long.

Some Indians speculate on the possibility of using Thailand as a gateway into China, and doubtless some Chinese are thinking of the reverse access into India. The name of the game will be mutual gain, but it is also important to make sure our own tardiness in economic reform does not come in the way of Indian business gaining in full measure.

The Thais have no problem in seeking to learn from us: they borrowed both the Ramayana and Buddhism in centuries past; and the Thai prime minister has made Infosys' Narayana Murthy his personal adviser on software.

So why doesn't Mr Vajpayee find a Thai or two who can advise him on infrastructure, and develop a base for computer hardware manufacture? It would make us focus more on the tasks ahead, and celebrate a little less. It may be a fickle comparison, but it does seem symbolic that, even as Delhi is cold and fog-bound, the sun is shining over Bangkok.