Subir Roy: How to handle negative Chinese vibes

If there is a single weakness that China is rapidly developing, it is hubris

Negative vibes between India and China are growing. It would be calamitous if this leads to greater military spending which will inevitably take away resources from fighting poverty. For their part, both the governments have sought to underplay rising temperatures, with the Indian government asserting that the border has been the “most peaceful” and there is machinery to sort out incursions.

But significant sections of the media and political opinion in India are unlikely to restrain themselves. A PTI report on foreign minister S M Krishna making the above assertion begins with the words, “Notwithstanding the incidents of Chinese aggression…” Poor Krishna seems to have been wasting his breath! A recent RSS statement says the Centre has adopted a “dilly-dallying attitude towards resolution of the disputed … border with China,” and reminds the Centre of the 1962 parliamentary resolution which “talked about taking back the entire land captured by China ... We should not leave even an inch of our land with China.”

 

Despite the government’s good intentions, the current mood appears to be taking its toll. A recent front page report in a respected Indian newspaper says, “Delhi has shot down Beijing’s proposals to teach Chinese in schools here and take Indian students to China under exchange programmes.” Two reasons are cited for this by the report quoting “sources”. One is that it is a response to the Chinese practice of stapling visas, instead of stamping then, onto passports of Indians from Jammu and Kashmir.

The other is that it seems a Chinese design to spread its “soft power”, widening its influence using culture as a tool, “camouflaging the Confucius Institute in the language proposal.” And what is this horrible institute? It is like the American Centre. Even the Canadian Security Intelligence has doubts on the centre, saying in a declassified intelligence report, hold your breath, “China wants the world to have positive feelings towards China and things Chinese, which … (is a sign of) desire for soft power.”

There are two good reasons why greater knowledge of Mandarin is vital for Indians. Trade between the two is galloping, with the balance in China’s favour. Knowledge of language is vital in cracking a market. Second, knowledge of language is essential in getting to know your enemy. China, Japan, Korea are all closed entities unless you know the respective languages.

Besides, it is important to build bridges with civil society and academia, irrespective of current country to country relations, to promote long term understanding. This is as true of independent commentators in the Pakistani media as Chinese academics who have a deep interest in India studies. If the Chinese are willing to spend good money for us to learn their language then it will be monumentally stupid not to grasp the opportunity.

Why have temperatures risen lately? A recent milestone is the failed Chinese attempt to prevent an Asian Development Bank $ 2.9 billion country loan to India as it included $ 60 million for a project in Arunachal Pradesh. India went all out to muster international diplomatic support— it could hardly have done otherwise— and the Chinese lost face. They hate doing so and India should expect and react in a measured way to Chinese sniping to inflict retaliatory humiliation on India.

But Chinese animosity towards India predates that misadventure of theirs and runs deeper. Experts trace it to the India-US nuclear deal which they see as taking India into the American orbit. This cannot be good news for China. Emerging China takes its global role seriously (witness the show of might at the 60th anniversary of its revolution) and will not tolerate an alternative pole in Asia.

Says an expert with the Council for Foreign Relations of the US, “The United States is trying to cement its relationship with the world’s largest democracy in order to counterbalance China.” Say another: the Bush administration is “hoping that latching onto India as the rising star of Asia could help them handle China.” Unsurprisingly, China, in response, is slowly upping the ante with India.

India’s response? It should take a leaf out of the Chinese book and play long term. It has to build its economic power as diplomatic and military power are built on that base. China leads India in virtually every respect— GDP, the fight againstpoverty, literacy, life expectancy, higher education and research— with perhaps one exception, software exports. Against this, if there is a single weakness which China is rapidly developing, it is hubris.

India must lie low in the short and medium term, build its strength (only a confident nation can strike deals) and hope that conditions in both countries will be ripe for striking the deal which Deng Xiaoping had offered in 1988 but which India had declined— accepting the status quo, the line of actual control, as the international border between the two countries.

subir.roy@bsmail.in