The process of writing the Union Budget is complicated. It requires the balancing of many interests while at the same time keeping an eye on medium- and long-term goals. Much is expected from the first Budget of the Narendra Modi government, as well as of Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. However, it is also worth noting that this is the first Budget in a very long time written without a chief economic advisor on staff. Naturally, there will be other economic advice available. But there is nevertheless reason to be concerned that, at the highest level and inside the rooms that matter, the dispassionate analysis of costs and benefits that such professionals provide may not be available.
This is a larger problem that is beginning to be visible in the new government. There is no need to question the government's determination and the effectiveness. Nor can it be the case that a superfluity of useless advisors and advisory councils - such as were visible in the United Progressive Alliance's rule - are an essential part of government or governance. And, no doubt, every ministry has some area experts. There is, however, every reason to worry that "general equilibrium" concerns - the effect on water resources, for example, of a change in industrial regulations; or the effect on consumers' welfare of a commerce ministry directive to change labelling requirements - may be forgotten.
Moreover, there is the question of what former United States president George H W Bush once called "the vision thing". The prime minister certainly has many blue-sky ideas, such as his "diamond quadrilateral" of high-speed rail. But the imaginative thinking that may be required of any government cannot be left only to one overworked man. And what of foreign or strategic affairs? While the competence of the new national security advisor cannot be questioned, there is little doubt that his focus is squarely on the neighbourhood. Who is thinking of the larger geo-strategic issues on which India must take a position?
One area where this may shortly begin to bite is international negotiations. Several complex issues are on the table. There is, of course, the question of free-trade negotiations. Without a firm vision of the benefits that greater trade can provide, India's bureaucrats will likely allow negotiations to be bogged down in minutiae. There's also the question of climate-change talks; other countries are moving forward with emission caps, but there is no clear idea if India is changing its argument and its proposals quickly enough. Meanwhile, the G-20 is creating new "rules of the game" - those dealing with banking regulations, for example. Who in the new government is thinking about what India's position is on this, or what the national interest demands? Who is the point person? What is India's strategy? These are unanswered questions. Indeed, it is not even clear who the seniormost economist in the Modi administration is, or who Mr Modi will trust to provide economic advice. Certainly, if the feeling is that the last government did too little, then correcting that inaction must be a priority. But the Nike slogan - "just do it" - can take an administration only so far.
