Incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen had an important TV debate on Wednesday evening to sway millions of indecisive voters. An aggressive Mr Macron attacked his opponent for her ties to Russia, while Ms Le Pen said Macron’s presidency had left France deeply divided, referencing the Yellow Vest protest movement that was triggered in late 2018, when Mr Macron increased diesel taxes. Ms Le Pen claimed that France “needs to be stitched back together”.
During the TV debate before the final run-off of the 2017 French presidential elections between these two leaders, Mr Macron snapped: “I’m sorry, Madame Le Pen; France deserves better than you.” As it turned out, many people concurred with him as he bagged a mammoth 66 per cent vote share to become the youngest resident of Élysée Palace by winning his first-ever electoral contest — a real-life fairytale indeed. Five years on, the popularity of right-wing parties in France has increased, and National Front’s leader Ms Le Pen and the former TV pundit Éric Zemmour together have received more support than
Mr Macron did in the first round of the elections. If no candidate gets 50 per cent vote in the French presidential elections, the top two candidates contest in a second-round run-off. It’s really difficult to perceive the electorates’ mood when, on Sunday, they’ll have only two candidates — Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen — to choose between. Mr Macron’s lead in opinion polls is much narrower this time around.
If only one driving factor has to be identified for the all-important 2022 French presidential elections, it’s simply “immigration”. Immigrants from Africa and West Asia are undoubtedly changing Europe’s demography — their religion, colour, food habits, dialects, and cultures. As an immediate consequence, the ultranationalist and anti-immigration far-right parties such as Vox party in Spain, Chega party in Portugal, Fratelli d’Italia party in Italy, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, Freedom Party of Austria, Miloš Zeman in the Czech Republic, Fidesz in Hungary, Sweden Democrats in Sweden are gaining momentum. Interestingly, more than half of the electorate voted for far-right or hard-left candidates in the first round of French elections.
France’s immigration problem, however, is much more deep-rooted. It’s simply the carry-over effect of its colonies in northwest Africa for centuries. How is immigration related to electoral support in French politics and society? In a 2019 article published in the European Economic Review, A Edo, Y Giesing, J Öztunc, and P Poutvaara estimated the impact of immigration on voting for far-left and far-right candidates. Based on electoral data from 1988 to 2017, they concluded that immigration has a positive impact on votes for far-right parties, which are driven by low-educated immigrants from non-Western countries. A weak negative impact on support for far-left parties was found, which could be explained by reduced support for redistribution.
Still, in the first round of the 2022 elections, veteran far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon got a hefty 22 per cent vote share when he narrowly missed the opportunity to contest in the second round. The last time a hard-left French politician received this kind of support was in 1969 when the Communist legend Jacques Duclos polled about 21.3 per cent.
Mr Macron admitted that he “did not manage to contain” the rise of the far-right during his presidency. He also behaved in a bit of a rightist way when he adopted tougher approaches on migrants and also adopted the “Separatism law”. The second round of election presents voters with two opposing visions of France. Ms Le Pen wanted to ban the hijab in public, while Mr Macron said he would never ban signs of religious belief in public because doing so would be contrary to France’s constitution. While Mr Macron ridiculed Ms Le Pen as a “climate skeptic”, she called him a “climate hypocrite”. Mr Macron certainly offers a pro-European, liberal platform, while Ms Le Pen’s nationalist manifesto is founded on deep Euroscepticism and social inequality related to immigration. Ms Le Pen vowed to put an end to “anarchic and massive” immigration into France, claiming it was worsening crime. Many voters, however, say they feel arm-twisted into choosing “the lesser of two evils”. Amid the complex social structure of today’s France, in the backdrop of the pandemic and Russia’s Ukraine attack, France is increasingly behaving like an unhappy democracy with a huge number of abstentions during the vote. If left-wing voters were to abstain in significantly larger numbers than the “populist block”, France could even end up with a “political accident”. To stimulate his supporters, Mr Macron already warned of the risk of a Brexit-style upset. If Ms Le Pen wins — which is not completely impossible — floodgates would open for the far rights, for sure. In France, in other parts of Europe.
This January, leading French author Michel Houellebecq came up with his new novel Anéantir (meaning “Annihilate” or “Destroy”), written in the backdrop of the 2027 French presidential elections. Well, in Anéantir, Mr Macron — while not named — is perceived to be the winner in 2022. And after two terms of Mr Macron’s presidency, the France of 2027 is predicted to be bleak, gripped by tensions caused by inequality as well as the slow death of rural communities.
Could Mr Macron become the first French president to win a second term after Jacques Chirac? His influence is extremely precious in present-day France and Europe, for sure. If Mr Macron wins, the profound influence of his powerful centrist politics may, however, resist the “destroy the social harmony” of the mixed French society. At least for the time being.
The writer is professor of Statistics, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
