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The marriage is showing signs of severe strain after 28 years, but no one is expecting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena to head for splitsville in Maharashtra.
“This is mere posturing before the state elections. Both are acutely aware that this is their best chance for capturing power in the state once again, and can hardly afford to spoil that opportunity and play into the hands of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine,” says a political observer.
There is no doubt about the “best chance” part, as the grand alliance — comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha — won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra in the recent Lok Sabha elections. And the ground rule was already set by new BJP President Amit Shah — the man who is perhaps the closest to Prime Minister Narendra Modi — during his visit to the state in the middle of this month. Shah snubbed those within the party who argued the BJP should fight the Assembly elections alone.
Even Modi is reported to have told his colleagues the alliance’s sole objective should be to oust the present state government.
This, however, does not mean the dissonance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena will go away anytime soon. The reason is BJP firmly believes the Modi effect played a big role in the victory of several Shiv Sena candidates in the general elections this time, and the party, therefore, deserves a better treatment.
That’s the reason why no consensus has yet been reached on who will play second fiddle in the run-up to and after the October elections. Party insiders say the haggling would continue.
Shiv Sena, which enjoyed the upper hand in the seat sharing over these years, wants to continue to play the big brother role – something the local BJP leaders are reluctant to concede. There is a consensus among experts the Sena has to come off the high horse, which it most probably will, and concede some more seats to BJP, which has made a strong case for amendment to the 169-119 seat sharing formula. The party wants at least 20 more seats.
According to the old poll-ties formula, the Sena would have its leader as the chief minister in the state and the leader of BJP would head the central government in case the National Democratic Alliance comes to power. But that is likely to change this time.
BJP and the Shiv Sena jointly face another challenge of fulfilling the wish list put up by other alliance partners, all of which want a bigger share of the pie.
The most contentious issue is, of course, the chief minister’s post, with neither of the parties willing to give up claim to it. The Shiv Sena has already launched a state-wide campaign to increase its presence by projecting Uddhav Thackeray as the party's chief ministerial candidate. BJP has so far been playing safe despite the increasing chorus for “upar Narendra niche Devendra” (Narendra Modi as PM and state BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis as Maharashtra CM).
TIE-UP TALE
“This is mere posturing before the state elections. Both are acutely aware that this is their best chance for capturing power in the state once again, and can hardly afford to spoil that opportunity and play into the hands of the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party combine,” says a political observer.
There is no doubt about the “best chance” part, as the grand alliance — comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena, Republican Party of India, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha — won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra in the recent Lok Sabha elections. And the ground rule was already set by new BJP President Amit Shah — the man who is perhaps the closest to Prime Minister Narendra Modi — during his visit to the state in the middle of this month. Shah snubbed those within the party who argued the BJP should fight the Assembly elections alone.
Even Modi is reported to have told his colleagues the alliance’s sole objective should be to oust the present state government.
This, however, does not mean the dissonance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena will go away anytime soon. The reason is BJP firmly believes the Modi effect played a big role in the victory of several Shiv Sena candidates in the general elections this time, and the party, therefore, deserves a better treatment.
That’s the reason why no consensus has yet been reached on who will play second fiddle in the run-up to and after the October elections. Party insiders say the haggling would continue.
Shiv Sena, which enjoyed the upper hand in the seat sharing over these years, wants to continue to play the big brother role – something the local BJP leaders are reluctant to concede. There is a consensus among experts the Sena has to come off the high horse, which it most probably will, and concede some more seats to BJP, which has made a strong case for amendment to the 169-119 seat sharing formula. The party wants at least 20 more seats.
According to the old poll-ties formula, the Sena would have its leader as the chief minister in the state and the leader of BJP would head the central government in case the National Democratic Alliance comes to power. But that is likely to change this time.
BJP and the Shiv Sena jointly face another challenge of fulfilling the wish list put up by other alliance partners, all of which want a bigger share of the pie.
The most contentious issue is, of course, the chief minister’s post, with neither of the parties willing to give up claim to it. The Shiv Sena has already launched a state-wide campaign to increase its presence by projecting Uddhav Thackeray as the party's chief ministerial candidate. BJP has so far been playing safe despite the increasing chorus for “upar Narendra niche Devendra” (Narendra Modi as PM and state BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis as Maharashtra CM).
TIE-UP TALE
- In Lok Sabha polls, BJP-Sena alliance got a record 51.2% votes, against 34.1% by the Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra — a record 16.1% difference
- BJP won 23 seats, Shiv Sena 18, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana 1
- MahaYuti is leading in more than 234 of the total 288 Assembly seats
- BJP insists on tweaking 169:119 seat-sharing formula with the Shiv Sena. The other partners in MahaYuti also want their share in seat arrangement
- BJP hopes to get substantial votes from Muslims, who constitute 11% in Maharashtra
- Want to ride further on the Narendra Modi wave
- Partners indicate tussle over CM's post will be resolved after poll results
