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The united show of strength by six former Janata Parivar constituents on Monday is widely perceived as an attempt to stay relevant in the face of a ‘saffron’ surge in most parts of the country since May this year. But will the emergence of this new formation give the idea of a third front a concrete shape? Will it add a new dimension to the country’s politics? The experts Business Standard spoke to do not appear enthused. The merged entity might not have much impact beyond a few states, they suggest, giving various reasons.
Limited spread
The constituents of the proposed formation have presence in only four states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Karnataka. Except in Bihar, the combined vote share of these parties in their states in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections ranged from 11 per cent to 24 per cent — not high enough to make a significant impact. “The party formed after the merger can hope to gain in Bihar, with Lalu Prasad’s RJD and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) coming together. But I cannot see how Prasad, for instance, will help Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP in Uttar Pradesh or Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD in Haryana,” says Sanjay Kumar, director, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
Political analyst Jai Mrug concurs: “The coming together of these leaders does not mean they will pick seats in states where they currently don’t have any. Their regional strengths are complementary, and not supplementary. So, in terms of altering overall numbers, the impact will be negligible. It only has a posturing value and signalling to their core voters not to turn towards BJP.” (VOTE SHARE)
Social justice plank
Recent elections have shown that political parties’ association with social groups is a dynamic one: They cannot take certain castes’ loyalty for granted. Surveys show the BJP got the bulk of dalit votes in this Lok Sabha elections, and managed to garner more than half the votes of other backward classes. The party’s traditional support base, the upper castes, also stayed firmly behind it. Disparate social groups, sometimes even hostile to each other, voted for the same party. This indicates the castes’ hold in deciding electoral outcomes is waning.
What this indicates, experts say, is that social justice is losing its significance as a political plank. In an emailed response to Business Standard earlier, Milan Vaishnav, an associate with South Asia Programme for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, had said: “The new politics of caste links social justice to a development agenda. Social justice for social justice’s sake is a political tactic of the past.” This might not be good news for the parties that are trying to come together under the new Janata Parivar umbrella. Those like SP and RJD have relied on the social justice plank to win elections.
Good economics is good politics
A recent study by Milan Vaishnav shows a correlation between good economics and winning votes has got stronger in recent years. His research reveals: “An improvement of one percentage point in a state’s growth rate in the 2000s is linked to a greater than nine per cent increase in the likelihood that the incumbent will be re-elected, a four percentage point gain in seat share, and a 1.3 percentage point rise in vote share.”
The primacy of economic factors influencing people’s behaviour has not been fully understood by these leaders. Except Nitish Kumar, who took Bihar to a high-growth path during his chief ministership, the other leaders of the grouping are still wedded to the idea of “social justice for social justice’s sake”.
Ideological orientation
The six parties coming together now derive their ideology from their opposition of the Congress. In doing so, many of these parties have in the past aligned with the BJP. Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and Chautala’s INLD, for instance, were associated with the BJP for years. Given that the Congress has lost its pre-eminence and the BJP has emerged as the top party, members of the Janata Parivar will have to re-orient their ideology to the changing times. “Most of these leaders have been in power in their respective states for years. People do not have any illusion about the kind of things they can deliver,” says CSDS’ Sanjay Kumar. Their track record could perhaps be a handicap.
No big single agenda in place
The first successful experiment of the proposed formation’s predecessor was in 1977. The erstwhile Bharatiya Lok Dal had that year won 54 per cent of Lok Sabha seats, with a vote share of nearly 42 per cent. But that was on the back of a strong anti-Emergency wave in the country. Later, the Janata Party did well in 1989 on the back of a strong anti-corruption plank, albeit with modest share of votes and seats.
Observers say nothing of that kind exists at present. They point out that an anti-corruption plank, in fact, might boomerang on the new Janata Parivar, as many of its leaders are themselves accused of corruption.
