After all the rumours, Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani has officially declared that he is keen to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, provided the Congress gives him a ticket. Simultaneously, the Aam Aadmi Party, too, is seeing a series of high-profile individuals joining the party, such as former Infosys CFO V Balakrishnan. Narendar Pani, professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bangalore, discusses Nilekani's chances and AAP's impact in Bangalore and elsewhere with Indulekha Aravind. Edited excerpts:
Would Nandan Nilekani's candidature help the Congress in Bangalore?
There is an information technology crowd that will identify with him and he appeals to the same sentiment that the Aam Aadmi Party has tapped. But I don't think the Congress will play him against Ananth Kumar in south Bangalore, as the current talk suggests, because if it does, I would rate the chances of Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (S) higher. Caste is a way of life here. The way non-Brahmin castes function is fundamentally different from the more Sanskritised class and that will show at the time of elections. And in all fairness to the Congress and other parties, they relate to that. When people say parties don't listen to the voice of the people, they mean they don't listen to the television-friendly people.
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How would you rate Aam Aadmi Party's chances in states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu?
The big trend, consistent since 1980, has been the decline of the national parties. So what we have is the creation of space for a third front. If in Delhi, this could be led only by AAP, elsewhere in the country it will be based on people having other loyalties, including caste, region and language. I cannot see AAP as a natural candidate for the third front space elsewhere in the country, even in Bangalore. For example, at a recent AAP meeting in Bangalore, where a well-known former trade union leader was speaking, the audience refused to let an AAP member from Delhi speak in Hindi. And this was an urban, fairly upper middle-class audience.
Aam Aadmi Party seems to have been able to attract a number of high-profile candidates...
Those who are gravitating towards the AAP are very similar in character to those who were part of Sonia Gandhi's National Advisory Council - high profile but with limited ground-level appeal.
Today, in any scenario, parties need allies to come to power. Do you think that would be a stumbling block for Aam Aadmi Party?
It would be a huge stumbling block. AAP is too self-righteous for alliances. Alliances are based on respect. AAP's tone really puts one off, and I'm not even a politician. It's extremely supercilious.
So, will the movement fizzle out or will it be a game-changer in the elections?
Aam Aadmi Party will be a game-changer to the extent that it will divide the non-resident Indian support for [BJP's prime ministerial candidate] Narendra Modi. That will affect the financial aspect of the election, rather than the actual numbers. Arvind Kejriwal and Modi represent two opposite approaches to that vote of dissatisfaction - Modi is aggressive, while Kejriwal's approach is more of leading by following. They are diametrically opposite but both aim at the critical sections of the westernised middle class, or the NRI middle-class.
What about in terms of vote share?
Only to the extent that it might puncture the so-called Modi wave, or the additional votes he was expected to bring in, which was, in any case, somewhat exaggerated. The BJP's traditional support will not be affected. Surprisingly, AAP has not shown signs of getting minority support on any substantial scale. After the Babri Masjid demolition, sociological studies have revealed that Muslim women started to wear the burqa mainly in public, for a sense of identity. That became important to them, and if you don't relate to that, it is very difficult to get their support.
