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"Do you think the monsoon session of Parliament will transact any business ?" Business Standard asked an independent MP.
He thought for a moment, as if mentally running through the list of Bills awaiting discussion and passage. A short, decisive shake of the head was the only reply.
There are several reasons why the monsoon session of Parliament is expected to achieve little. MPs say three events are going to cast a long shadow on the session. One, setting the stage, is the result of the six assembly by-elections in five states on June 30. The rule of thumb is that by-elections favour the ruling party. In Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP won a seat, its margin of victory dropped considerably. In Kerala, where the ruling BJP came third but quadrupled its vote share, it is the CPI (M) that should worry, over the ground the BJP has managed to cover. The same goes for Tripura where although the CPI (M) won both seats, it was the BJP that came second, not the Congress. If in West Bengal it is the CPI(M) that is yielding ground to the BJP, in Tripura it is the Congress that is seeing erosion in its support base. This, observers suggest, is going to push the CPI (M) into taking a much more aggressive position, especially in Parliament. A series of meetings have taken place between Congress president Sonia Gandhi and CPI (M) general secretary Sitaram Yechury on the limited issue of parliamentary collaboration, Congress leaders say.
The second issue is an upcoming event. Primed by looming elections in Bihar, the stance taken by all the parties is how they can leverage the Parliament session to their advantage in the Bihar elections. The election is a test of BJP President Amit Shah's leadership and the BJP's own mien in Parliament will be to give little and take as much as possible. Extrapolate this in Parliament where in the Rajya Sabha because it is in a minority, the BJP can run on braggadocio but little else, and a standoff is inevitable. Consensus building is likely to be the biggest casualty.
The third issue is that there are objectively more groups that want to stall the House than parties that want legislation passed. The Congress and AIADMK are implacably opposed to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill in its current form and feel they have won a victory of sorts by forcing that legislation to a select committee. All parties opposed to the Land acquisition bill feel they won the day with the government acknowledging that the states should formulate their own acquisition laws, instead of forcing a uniform central law down their throats. This has made regional parties feel enormously empowered and if they don't agree with a law the BJP wants to pass, they are unlikely to exert themselves excessively to help the government pass it, like the Land acquisition legislation.
In this framework, MPs say it is highly unlikely Parliament will do meaningful business in the 23 days at its disposal in the monsoon session with the 32 bills that have to be passed. The Vyapam scam and related deaths, the Lalit Modi issue and related revelations regarding Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje will certainly block the functioning of Parliament. The stumbling block will be the opposition demand that the PM make a statement and the government's insistence that matters relating to state governments cannot be raised in Parliament.
Out of 32 bills, 6 bills such as Juvenile Justice and Whistle Blowers have been passed by the Lok Sabha but are pending in Rajya Sabha, while 5 bills such as Readjustment of Representation of SCs and STs in parliamentary & Assembly constituencies Indian Medical Council (amendment) are pending in the Rajya Sabha and are yet to be introduced in the Lok Sabha. 17 bills, including important ones like Lokpal and Lokayuktas, Benami Transaction (Prohibition), Anti Hijacking, Compensatory Afforestation, Human Immunodeficiency Virus & Acquired Deficiency Syndrome (Prevention and Control) are yet to be introduced in both the houses.
There are three bills that have been introduced and pending in the Lok Sabha but are yet to be introduced in the Rajya Sabha, while only one bill has been passed by the Rajya Sabha and is pending in Lok Sabha. 32 Standing Committee reports have to be presented.
Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu and Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan are likely to do their best to make Parliament function. But opposition leaders are equally clear that this time, unlike past highly productive sessions, the monsoon session will be swept away.
| THE PARLIAMENTARY STRATEGY OF OPPN |
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Unlike the issue of alleged corruption by Roads Minister Nitin Gadkari, when the Congress managed to stall House proceedings for a week during the Budget session, party leaders insist they have more ammunition this time, due to the range of scams in BJP-ruled states as well as the Modigate episode, enough to obstruct proceedings of the entire monsoon session. |
"We will not exhaust our arsenal by raising all the issues on a single day. It will be a relentless barrage of the many issues, raised one by one, ensuring a complete washout of the session," said a Congress parliamentary party leader.
Issues likely to resonate in both houses, (in the Lok Sabha where Congress has a bench strength of 44 and in the Rajya Sabha where it has a robust presence), include the Vyapam scam, the PDS scam in Chhattisgarh and the Lalit Modi issue. It is hopeful of opposition unity on all these issues but has not found much support for its demand for External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj's resignation. Nonetheless, the party is undeterred and says it will be vocal in raising the "nakli deshbhakti" of the likes of Vasundhara Raje and Sushma Swaraj.
"BJP has taught us how to block the house; we will only be implementing their methods," said a Congress leader. The party is clear that should the government not allow them to raise these issues in the Lok Sabha, where the government enjoys overwhelming majority, the party will resort to all tactics, including boycotting the House.
As for the Upper House, where the government is on the backfoot, the Congress predicts a logjam.
Senior parliamentary party leaders including LOP Ghulam Nabi Azad and Mallikarjun Kharge are reaching out to other Opposition parties, attempting to forge Opposition unity on a range of issues.
There is convergence of opposition opinion on the Land bill, with even NDA allies like the SAD making common cause with the Opposition in opposing the government's Land bill. However on issues like the GST, the Congress finds itself isolated with only the AIADMK rejecting the government's bill.
Aware of the need to forge a united flank of the Opposition against the government, the Congress, according to sources, is engaged in informal talks with the Left parties. The Left parties, have conveyed that they will co-ordinate with the Congress on the floor of the house to oppose the BJP led government in Parliament, but their cooperation will be limited only to within Parliament.
With Assembly polls in the offing in Kerala next year, the Left can ill afford to be seen sharing space with the Congress, (its adversary in Kerala), outside parliament. This is the reason that the Left parties stayed away from Congress president Sonia Gandhi's Iftar party.
On the constitutional amendment to the GST for instance, apart from the Congress only the Left parties are likely to submit dissent notes.
While on an issue like the Land bill, should the government bring it in this session, the Opposition will be united in opposing the government, bringing arch rivals TMC and Left on the same platform, however on other issues regional parties are divided in their opinion depending their state interests
BILLS TO BE INTRODUCED IN SESSION
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Negotiable Instruments (Amendment) Bill, 2015 (to replace an Ordinance),
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Bureau of Indian Standards (Amendment) Bill, 2015
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Consumer Protection (Amendment) Bill, 2015
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Constitution amendment bills relating to reservation of women in Panchayats and Local Bodies
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Road Transport & Safety Bill, 2015,
- Merchant Shipping (Amendment) Bill, 2015
- Human Deoxyribose Nucleic Acid (DNA) Profiling Bill, 2015
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Mental Health Care Bill, 2013
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Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2012
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Prevention of Corruption (Amendment) Bill, 2013
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Whistle Blowers Protection (Amendment) Bill, 2015 as passed by Lok Sabha
THE GST BATTLE
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Congress continues to oppose present GST bill, prepares dissent notes for Select committee report
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Regional parties barring the AIADMK on board with government on GST; Government amenable to compensate states in full for revenue loss for five years
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Congress presses for removal of 1 per cent additional tax over the GST; want alcohol and electricity under GST as well as an independent dispute settlement authority.
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Dissenters limited to Congress, Left and the AIADMK
