Based on the provisions in the Budget, brokerage firm Credit Suisse has estimated that the government may get Rs 50,000 crore in next spectrum auction planned to be held in 2016-17.
Union Budget 2016-17 has more than doubled receipt provision from communication services to Rs 98,994.93 crore. This is about 75 per cent compared with the amount it actually received in current fiscal from the telecom ministry.
A Credit Suisse report by Research Analysts Sunil Tirumalai and Chunky Shah estimate the total provision would include about Rs 22,000 crore from recurring licence and spectrum fees revenues, Rs 6,500 crore from deferred payments of past auctions and Rs 20,000 crore from one-time spectrum fees.
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"...Balance about Rs 500 billion likely from upcoming spectrum auctions," the report said.
It further said if government achieves its target then " it would be a significant negative for the sector - as we believe spectrum outflow in consensus ests is negligible."
Based on the Budget announcement, the report estimates that the government is likely budgeting a Rs 162500 crore (USD 25 billion) spectrum sale from the auctions.. Out of which 25-30% of would get paid immediately and form part of revenue receipts for the year.
"This implies about 30 per cent of value of spectrum on offer gets sold at TRAI reserve prices. Seen in another way, this assumes at least a partial success of 700 MHz spectrum, as the value in all other spectrum bands is less than USD 20 billion," the report said.
Credit Suisse sees that half a per cent Krishi Kalyan Cess would introduced by government in this budget would add to the woes of telecom operators who have struggled in the past while passing on such tax increases to subscribers.
The report said that the service tax introduced on spectrum trading would have negligible impact on the sector as Service tax on spectrum transfer will have negligible impact as the companies can set-off this service tax against the regular service tax liability.
"Unless the operator who purchases the spectrum does not have any revenues (and hence no service tax payable to off-set), this change will not have an impact on the transaction," the report said.
The government still expects that even with a high price,
the players will bid in an effort to gain an edge.
The last auction held in March 2015 fetched the government record bids of over Rs 1.1 lakh crore.
As per the rules, companies winning spectrum in higher frequency bands -- above 1Ghz like 1800 Mhz, 2100 Mhz, 2300 Mhz -- should make 50 per cent upfront payment and the rest in 10 years after a 2-year moratorium. In earlier auctions, companies were given the option to make 33 per cent upfront payment.
For spectrum below 1 Ghz band such as 700 Mhz, 800 Mhz, 900 Mhz, the companies will require to pay 25 per cent upfront and the rest in 10 years after a 2-year moratorium.
