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Indian Car Market to Remain Dominated by Combustion Engine in Mid-term, While the 2-Wheeler and 3-Wheeler Migrate to Electric: A Forecast by SEG Automotive

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Press Trust of India BANGALORE
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Combustion engine is set to continue dominating the passenger car market, Start/Stop could save billions of liters of fuel every year

Global Start/Stop market crossed 50% for the first time in 2019 - but with huge regional differences

In 2025, 48V hybrids will have twice the market share of battery electric cars on a global scale. In India 2-wheeler and 3-wheeler market will migrate to EV at a pace much faster than that of passenger car market

Reducing CO 2 emissions from passenger cars and commercial vehicles is a central, global challenge to combat climate change. It is also a particularly important topic in India, both to reduce urban pollution and dependence on oil imports. Driven by an increased social awareness, stricter CO 2 legislation and new business opportunities, the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles has begun. However, as a recent analysis by global supplier SEG Automotive of data provided by IHS Markit shows, globally change will come slower than expected. Even by 2025, on a global scale only a fraction of produced cars are forecast to be pure battery electric. At the same time, technologies that make combustion engines more efficient are set to rapidly increase their market penetration: 48V mild hybridization is expected to reach double the market share of EVs globally by 2025. At the same time, Start/Stop is being applied as a universal solution as well - it has exceeded 50% global market penetration for the first time in 2019. In India, change is coming as well - with electrification to take off first in the 2- and 3-wheeler segment, while on the internal combustion engines for passenger cars technologies like Start/Stop and 48V hybrids enables fuel efficiency improvements and hence CO2 reduction.
Electrification will come - but new market data suggests that the transition will be gradual. Even in 2025, the large majority of cars will still have a combustion engine. To protect the climate and achieve the increasingly stringent CO2 legislation targets, these vehicles need to be as efficient as possible. Accordingly, OEMs are not only increasing the share of Start/Stop in their vehicles, but also applying new solutions like 48V hybridization. Every major world region has a somewhat different approach, with India focusing on electric 2-wheelers instead of cars for private mobility.
Indian perspective: Combustion engine to continue dominating the passenger car market in midterm, while EV is expected to pick up in 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers.
"Air pollution is already a major problem in India, with the WHO ranking 9 Indian cities among the 10 most polluted in the world. Electric cars will only reach a minor market share in India in mid-term. However, migration to EV is expected to be faster in case of 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers segments. In times where the public charging infrastructure in India is yet to be fully established, their usage pattern and average driving distance per day makes 2-wheelers & 3-wheelers suitable for electrification right away. FAME II policy of the Indian government supports electrification of these segments. The decreased total cost of ownership coupled with government incentives supports the migration of 2-wheelers and 3-wheelers to EV at a much faster pace compared to passenger cars." states Mr. Anil Kumar M R, President & Managing Director, SEG Automotive India.
Accordingly, the aim must be to focus on: downsizing & 48V hybridization of combustion engines, and electrification of vehicles such as e-scooters & e-autos. The dense traffic situation in metropolitan areas also offers great savings potential for Start/Stop: Had all combustion engine cars produced in India in 2018 been equipped with Start/Stop, the fuel savings over their lifetime would have exceeded 3.7 bn. liters of fuel and 8.6 mil. tons of CO2. "The Start/Stop technology is not yet widespread in India, but is forecast to almost double its current market penetration by 2025. An increased focus of the government on greener mobility as well as the recent introduction of especially compact Start/Stop starters might lead to even faster growth - and thus higher savings." states Mr. Anil Kumar M R, President & Managing Director, SEG Automotive India.
The Indian automotive industry has been hit hard by the recent economic downturn; car production in the country was down almost 20% in 2019. After a few years of recovery, the region will once again experience strong growth, with forecasts expecting the production in 2025 to be 50% higher than last year. This makes any efficiency increases all the more important to reduce pollution.
"In the upcoming Auto expo 2020, SEG Automotive is showcasing its latest products and innovations enabling the transformation towards greener and cleaner mobility in India. SEG automotive will be presenting its products ranging from 12V Start/Stop starter motors, high efficiency generators for conventional combustion engine vehicles to 48V machines for pure electric & hybrid vehicles. During the Auto Expo, SEG Automotive is planning to launch its new range of e-motors for light electric vehicles in India," states Mr. Anil Kumar M R, President & Managing Director, SEG Automotive India.
Global perspective: Quick rise of 48V market share to save millions of tons of CO2

Only over the last year, the first 48V hybrid cars became commercially available from brands like BMW and Daimler in the luxury car sector. This technology transforms any conventional internal combustion engine into an efficient mild-hybrid with minimal effort: by replacing the 12V generator with a 48V machine, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are reduced by up to 15%. Over the next years, the 48V technology is forecast to quickly spread to more OEMs and different market segments, achieving a global market share twice as high as battery electric cars. China and Europe will be the leaders for this technology with about 1 in 3 new cars in 2025 to already feature 48V, with the US expected to mirror this fast growth with a delay of a few years.
This has an immediate impact on climate protection: the projected cars produced with 48V technology in 2025 alone are set to save a total of over 30 bn. liters of fuel and more than 70 mil. tons of CO2 over their lifecycle compared to conventional combustion engines. For comparison, the total CO2 emissions of Germany in 2018 amounted to 760 mil. tons.
Start/Stop crossed 50% market share in 2019

As a highly cost efficient-way to reduce fuel consumption by around 8%, Start/Stop has continously expanded its market penetration across the globe. The cars produced with Start/Stop in 2019 will save a total of 36 bn. liters of fuel over their lifetime. Compared to conventional cars, this equals over 84 mil. tons of prevented CO2 emissions. As the market share of combustion engines slowly declines with the rise of 48V and electric vehicles, 12V cars without Start/Stop will go virtually extinct. In Germany for example, in 2018 already 97% of newly produced cars with a combustion engine featured a Start/Stop system.
About SEG Automotive

SEG Automotive is closely linked to the history of the automobile. Emerged from the BOSCH Starter Motors & Generators division in January 2018, the company stands for more than a century of innovations in its product sector: from the invention of the starter motor and generator to Start/Stop and mild-hybridization. SEG Automotive makes a significant contribution to climate protection by reducing emissions across powertrain technologies: Fueled by its passion for innovation, the global supplier is driving the transition towards more efficient combustion engines, 48V hybrids and electrification.
Almost all automotive OEMs worldwide rely on SEG Automotive's global production network, which delivers highperformance, durable and competitive products with uniform quality standards. This global strength has its foundation in a cross-cultural team of over 8,000 employees in 14 countries in the world's most important automotive markets.
www.seg-automotive.

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First Published: Jan 30 2020 | 1:50 PM IST

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