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Fed stimulus jitters dent Asian currencies

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Reuters SINGAPORE

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Some Asian currencies fell on Thursday, dented by jitters that a scaling back of U.S. monetary stimulus might be imminent, while the Indonesian rupiah hit a near five-year low, succumbing to year-end corporate demand for the dollar.

The rupiah fell to as low as 12,040 versus the dollar, its lowest level since March 2009, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The rupiah's drop was triggered by dollar-buying by local and foreign banks on behalf of their corporate clients, an Indonesia-based trader said.

The rupiah showed limited reaction after Indonesia's central bank kept its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 7.50 percent on Thursday, as expected, as the country's trade balance has returned to a small surplus and inflation is moderating.

 

The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR), which the central bank launched in May in an effort to manage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at 12,025 rupiah per dollar, the weakest since JISDOR's introduction.

The rupiah has fallen around 20 percent against the dollar this year, making it the worst performing emerging Asian currency so far in 2013.

The rupiah does not appear undervalued even after its drop this year and is likely to weaken further in 2014, Khoon Goh, senior FX strategist for ANZ, said in a research note.

"In fact, the 12,000 level corresponds to our PPP estimate of fair value," Goh said, referring to purchasing power parity. ANZ was revising its end-2014 forecast for the rupiah to 12,200, from 12,000 previously, he said.

"Given the need to narrow the country's current account deficit, we look for further rupiah depreciation next year," Goh said, adding that the possibility of political uncertainty with a presidential election coming up in July, also raises the risk of rupiah weakness.

Weighing on some Asian currencies were jitters that the U.S. Federal Reserve may announce a tapering of its monetary stimulus as early as next week, when it holds a policy meeting on December 17-18.

Such caution grew after a provisional budget deal out of Washington was seen as removing one of the near-term reasons for the Fed to maintain its current pace of economic stimulus.

Falls in Asian currencies were led by the Indian rupee, the Malaysian ringgit and the rupiah. The Singapore dollar eased a bit, while other Asian currencies either held steady or managed to rise slightly.

The Philippine central bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record low 3.5 percent as expected, with no immediate threat from inflation and with growth expected to remain solid next year.

(Reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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First Published: Dec 12 2013 | 3:01 PM IST

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