Business-Savvy Gujaratis Say Elections Only Of Academic Interest

Two elections in Gujarat, for both parliament and the state assembly on 28, are expected to severely test the Bharatiya Janata Partys hold over one of its strongest political bases.

The 182-member state assembly is up for elections barely within two and a half years, while the states 26 Lok Sabha seats are going for balloting in one and a half years with the rest of the country. Both could well decide whether a state projected by the BJP as its model for the rest of India would live up to that claim or let it down.

Although frequent elecions have left Indias most business-savvy Gujarati people cold, four main political groupings are struggling to fire some enthusiasm. Gujarat is Indias premier industrial state. Its people are known worldwide for their sharp business sense. They couldnt care less about politicians and elections because they do not serve any purpose, a leading industrialist, controlling one of Indias most rapidly growing textile empire, said.

 

The industrialist, who does not want to be named, says: Gujaratis have always operated independent of the government and political establishment. They do not need either.

In a state where individual entrepreneurship has always worked independent of the government, it is irrelevant which party comes to power.

The advantage in Gujarat is that people mind their business very well and ignore the political establishment and government. Who comes to power is only of academic interest, the industrialist said.

It is this general indifference against which the four parties-the Congress, the BJP, the Rashtriya Janata party (RJP) and the Janata Dal-are preparing to campaign. In the last Lok Sabha, the BJP had 16 seats and the Congress, 10.

Prabodh Raval, former chief of the state Congress and an influential leader, says his party would at least retain these seats if not improve upon that figure. But the BJP and even some Congress sources say that the party could suffer losses. As of now the assessment is that the Congress should manage to win seven or eight parliamentary seats.

The only contest of any national significance from Gujarat involves BJP president Lal Krishna Advani who is contesting the Gandhinagar seat again. Advani, who resigned his seat over charges of his involvement in the hawala scam, is expected to win without any major problems. His main Congress rival is a political lightweight, Prabhat Kumar Datta, a retired police officer.

The Gandhinagar constituency consists of 1.7 million voters and is regarded as being among the largest constituencies in the country in terms of its voter population. Haren Pandya, an MLA and BJP spokesman, said: Advani will have a walkover from here. It is really no contest.

While the parliamentary elections are clearly divided between the Congress and the BJP, the state elections present an insight into Gujarats highly fractious politics. The BJP, which emerged seemingly unassailable two and a half years ago with 120 seats in the 182-member house and Keshubhai Patel as Chief Minister, was badly shaken up by an internal revolt within a year.

Shankarsinh Vaghela, a long time member of the party known for his outspokenness, walked away with over 40 legislators, brought the Patel government down and installed himself as the new leader with Congress support. The Vaghela-led revolt in the BJP left the partys national leadership deeply embarrassed since it all but destroyed its carefully cultivated image of being disciplined and above dissent.

The party has had a tough time in New Delhi living down the Gujarat break-up and is still struggling to bury it.

Vaghelas tenure too did not last long as the Congress, which had propped him up, threatened to withdraw support unless he was removed. After much rancour, Vaghelas RJP agreed on a compromise candidate in Dilip Parikh as the new Chief Minister.

But Parikh too was troubled by serious dissensions led by Atmaram Patel, his revenue minister, who wanted to be chief minister. Patel quit the party late last year taking with him 18 legislators to join the Janata Dal, one of the 14 parties that made up the United Front in New Delhi.

The current position is rather confused. The Congress had 45 legislators, the Rashtriya Janata Party had 25, the Janata Dal 18, the BJP 72 and the rest were independents. Although the BJP is still the largest party, it no longer enjoys political supremacy in the state.

Vaghelas ambition to emerge as an alternative state leader has not worked the way he had planned. The Congress remains in doldrums, while the BJP is no longer sure of its position.

Independent political analysts say that the BJP could still get between 100 and 105 seats, the Congress about 60, the RJP about ten and the rest could go to independents. Raval says there is growing realisation that the BJP, despite its strong position, has failed to ensure Gujarats economic progress. That is a significant point which we are going to talk about, he said.

But Pandya counters: Had it not been for the unholy coming together of Vaghela and the Congress, the BJP would have lasted its five-year term and guaranteed progress.