Cabinet Debates Jaffna Evacuation Implifications

NEW DELHI

The Cabinet Committee on security on Tuesday debated the implications of evacuating Sri Iankan troops from Jaffna and considered the levels of threats to Indian troops in carrying out this task.

The modalities of evacuation are serious: A ceasefre on both sides is imperative if an evacustion is to be made possible.

The ceasefire can't be a one week affair either. If even 60 per cent of India's merchant and naval shipping vessels (Landing Ship Tanks, or LSTs, used to land tanks on beaches and also used to carry troops) are employed and 50 per cent of India's civilian and military airicraft are used, even then it could take two to three weeks to evacuate 40,000 troops.

 

There are between 30 and 40,000 Sri Lankan Army troops in Jaffna. When the Indian PeaceKeping Forces (IPKF) deinducted from North and East Sri Lanka, just the exercise of deinduction took nearly a month of meticulous planning and almost three months to complete.

It was accompanied by full backup from the air force and navy.

So Army Chief Gen Ved Malik has told the government that somebody - either the Indian gov ernment or the Sri Iartkan government or the Norwegian rnediators - would have to guarantee that both sides would hold their fire for the time that it will take tn get Sri Lankan forces out of Jaffna.

If however, there is what is called a fighting withdrawal which means Liberation Tigers of Tamil vEalam continues to fire on both Sri Lankan and Indian vessels and the Sri Lankan Army fights till the end of the withdrawal, then even without taking an offensive position, there will be 5 to 15 per cent casualties on the Indian side.

The question is whether India is prepared for a worst case scenario where for every 100 soldiers they send, there could be 5 to 15 casualties, maybe more.

Defence sources say temporary ceasefire is essentiat if evacuation is to be successful.

The last instance of evacuation was at Kargil in July last year. On that occasion, the Indian Army had to cease fire for six days to enabIe Palsistani intruders to withdraw.

India has evacuated defence personnel once before from Jaffna;;:in 1990 when the Indian Peace Keeping Ir orce was in Sri Lanka.